ANZ: New Zealand Business Confidence Jumps as Firms Look Beyond Geopolitical Risks - ActionForex
New Zealand business confidence strengthened sharply in July, with ANZ’s Business Outlook survey suggesting firms have become increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook despite heightened geopolitical. . .
New Zealand business confidence strengthened sharply in July, with ANZ’s Business Outlook survey suggesting firms have become increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Headline business confidence rose sharply to 56. 1 from 36. 6, while firms’ own activity outlook climbed to 49. 3 from 36. 9. Export, investment and employment intentions also improved, pointing to a broad-based recovery in business sentiment. The survey painted an encouraging picture for the economy, but ANZ cautioned that the outlook remains unusually uncertain as businesses grapple with volatile oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. “It feels like we need a weekly business confidence survey at the moment,” the bank noted, highlighting how rapidly changing geopolitical developments have driven sharp swings in energy prices. The key question, according to ANZ, is whether firms and households continue with investment and spending plans or retreat into a more defensive stance if uncertainty persists. For now, businesses appear to be looking through the near-term volatility. Just as importantly for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, inflation indicators continued to soften even as confidence improved. One-year inflation expectations, pricing intentions and cost expectations all declined from June, suggesting the recovery in business sentiment has yet to generate renewed inflation pressure. That combination of firmer growth expectations and easing inflation should give policymakers greater confidence that the economy can continue recovering without requiring a renewed tightening response. Economic DataIndicatorJulyJuneBusiness Confidence56. 136. 6Own Activity Outlook49. 336. 9Export Intentions26. 618. 1Investment Intentions22. 816. 5Employment Intentions18. 19. 4Residential Construction42. 525. 0Commercial Construction48. 928. 9Profit Expectations28. 713. 0Ease of Credit1. 4-1. 9Activity vs. Year Ago9. 79. 0Employment vs. Year Ago-0. 3-4. 6Pricing Intentions (Net %)47. 250. 7Pricing Intentions (3 Months)1. 78%2. 03%Cost Expectations (Net %)78. 284. 7Cost Expectations (3 Months)2. 70%3. 24%Wage Expectations (12 Months)2. 52%2. 53%Inflation Expectations (1 Year)3. 14%3. 36%Key TakeawaysBusiness confidence jumped to56. 1, while firms’ own activity outlook rose to49. 3, pointing to a broad-based improvement in economic sentiment. Export, investment and employment intentions all strengthened, suggesting businesses remain willing to expand despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Construction was a standout performer, with both residential and commercial activity expectations reaching multi-month highs. Inflation indicators continued to moderate. One-year inflation expectations, pricing intentions and cost expectations all declined from June. The survey presents a favorable combination ofstronger growth expectations and easing inflation pressures, supporting the RBNZ’s view that the recovery can continue without reigniting inflation. ANZ cautioned that sharp swings in oil prices and Middle East tensions have significantly increased uncertainty. Whether firms and households maintain spending and investment plans will be critical for the medium-term outlook. Full ANZ NZ Business Oultook release here. ActionForexActionForex. com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.