As concern about climate change rebounds, one-in-six 2025 Liberal voters are migrating – for now – to the NDP - Angus Reid Institute
July 29, 2026 –Renewed concern about a changing climate is pushing environmental issues back onto Canadians' political radar and creating thorny challenges for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the governing. . .
July 29, 2026 –Renewed concern about a changing climate is pushing environmental issues back onto Canadians' political radar and creating thorny challenges for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the governing Liberals. New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that, as wildfires burn across Canada, the U. S. and Europe, the proportion of Canadians choosing climate change as a top concern has risen from 14 to 21 percentage points – a fifty per cent increase – in four months. The political consequences of this are evident. While the Liberals continue to lead the Conservatives in federal vote intention, their advantage has narrowed to four points, as one-in-six of those who voted Liberal in 2025 now say they would support the NDP (15%). Among these Liberal-to-NDP switchers, climate change ranks as a top concern for half – twice the number among those who remain with Carney's party (50% to 27%, respectively). Carney's personal disapproval rating among these past Liberals who now would cast a ballot for the NDP is 31 per cent, while it is just two per cent among those who voted Liberal last year and would do so again. Carney's overall approval sits at 51 per cent, down nine points from a sixty per cent high registered in February. Key findings21%Now choose climate change as a top issue, up from 14% in March15%Of 2025 Liberal voters now say they'd vote NDP51%Approve of PM Carney, down from a 60% high in February4ptLiberal lead over the Conservatives, 40% to 36%Go Beyond the HeadlinesIn this reportPart One: Climate change rebounds as a priorityPart Two: Political implicationsPart Three: Views of the party leadersMethodology and downloadsPart OneClimate change rebounds as a priorityWildfire season is a stark reminder of the evolving threat a changing climate poses, as experts believe earth's warming climate is amplifying wildfire and fire activity, especially in Canada's forests. Canadians have taken notice of the smoke affecting their summer activities. The proportion of Canadians who choose climate change and the environment as one of Canada's top issues has risen steadily from the spring. However, this is less a return to concern levels from highs of almost ten years ago, and more of a climb out of a nadir of attention on the issue which had been pushed to the side by broader concerns over inflation and the cost of living (which persist) and a focus on relations with the United States. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. A generational split is clearConcern is highest – and has jumped the most – among Canadians under 45This surge of concern reveals a generational split between younger and older Canadians. The proportion choosing climate change as a top issue is near double among those younger than 45 compared to those older. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. That said, climate change has risen as an issue among all groups compared to prior to the election last year. And perhaps owing to the recent headlines and real world impacts of fires, has gotten a considerable bump even compared to ARI data taken last month. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. Part TwoPolitical implicationsA renewed focus on the environment has political implications, especially for the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney. The party's policies on the environment have shifted significantly compared to those under Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, resulting in Trudeau's former environment minister resigning from Carney's cabinet and eventually stepping down as an MP saying the country is "backsliding" on climate action. Climate does not rank among the top five issues for those who would vote for the Liberals if there were a federal election today. But it does for current NDP supporters (49% select it as top issue) and those who would vote for the Bloc Québécois (33%). In the 2025 federal election, there were seven formerly NDP seats and 12 formerly BQ seats that went to the Liberals. There are a different suite of issues driving those who would vote for the CPC if the election were today, including immigration (38%), the deficit (31%) and taxes (27%). Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,769 decided/leaning voters. Carney holds approval of (just over) halfCarney's approval has slipped nine points since a February highWhile he maintains approval from half of the country after 15 months in office, Prime Minister Carney's public opinion profile has worsened compared to where it was at the beginning of the year. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. Nearly all (97%) of those who voted Liberal and say they would still support the Liberals if there were an election today approve of Carney's performance. A majority (57%) who say they now would vote for the NDP also approve of Carney, but there is much more disapproval (31%) among that group. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. Declining assessments of Carney are most notable among those aged 35 to 44 (-6 net approval currently) and aged 18 to 24 (+1 net approval). But Carney's approval has declined across all age groups since March, when he was still basking in the post-Davos approval bump. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. Liberals lose ground in vote intention as NDP gains slightlyLiberal lead over the Conservatives narrows to four pointsThe Liberal Party continues to maintain an advantage in vote intention, but it is one that has diminished throughout 2026. Compared to data collected in February, the Liberals have dropped five points while the NDP has gained four. The proportion who say they would vote for the CPC has not changed. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,769 decided/leaning voters. One-in-six 2025 Liberals now say they'd vote NDPAbout one-in-five 2025 Liberal voters have shifted to a more left-leaning optionSome of the base of support that Mark Carney was able to rally in the spring of 2025 appears to have dissipated. Currently, three-quarters of his party's voters from last year would return in a future election, but 15 per cent have departed for the NDP and three per cent for the Green Party, suggesting approximately one-in-five 2025 Liberals are now supporting a more left-leaning option. This, while Carney faces accusations from some of running more of a Progressive Conservative government. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,769 decided/leaning voters. Past Liberals who now would vote NDPLiberal-to-NDP switchers are far more likely to prioritize climate and inequalityWhile much of the 2025 federal election campaign centred on the response to President Donald Trump, other issues have now begun to crop up as that concern diminishes. What has emerged is a clear division of priorities between those who still support the Liberal Party and those who now say they would vote for the NDP. That latter group is twice as likely to say that climate change is a top concern (50% vs 27%) and more than three-times as likely to be concerned about inequality (34% vs 10%). Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. Vote by regionLiberals hold onto leads in Ontario and QuebecRegionally, the Liberals still hold onto two key factors in vote intention – leads in Ontario and Quebec. The overall picture in Ontario looks much like the national one, with the Liberals holding a small lead over the CPC. In Quebec, 41 per cent say they would vote Liberal while 27 per cent would support the Bloc Québécois. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,571 decided/leaning voters. Part ThreeViews of the party leadersThe vote intention race may be tightening between the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives, but the latter is still helmed by a leader who is struggling to gain personal popularity. A majority (60%) of Canadians say they have an unfavourable view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, which has been consistent since November last year. One-third (33%) view him favourably. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. Meanwhile, NDP leader Avi Lewis, who won his role in March, remains relatively unknown compared to other major party leaders. But he has gained traction among the growing number who say they would vote for the NDP if there were an election today. More than two-thirds (66%) of current NDP supporters say they view Lewis favourably. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 25–27, 2026, n=1,770 Canadian adults. About this surveyMethodology and downloadsThe Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from July 25–27, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,770 Canadian adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a large-scale online panel developed to include Canadian residents in each of the 343 federal ridings in Canada and representative of the Canadian population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status and education. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/– 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.