Ceuta: Beyond the Outrage, a Development Lesson for Africa
Tens of thousands of young Moroccans forced their way across the border into Spain’s Ceuta enclave on July 30 and 31. They were not fleeing an economy in ruins or one of the sub-Saharan African countries often portrayed as poorly governed. They were leaving one of Africa’s six largest economies,. . .
Tens of thousands of young Moroccans forced their way across the border into Spain’s Ceuta enclave on July 30 and 31. They were not fleeing an economy in ruins or one of the sub-Saharan African countries often portrayed as poorly governed. They were leaving one of Africa’s six largest economies, ranked first on the continent for industrialization by the African Development Bank. That is what makes the episode particularly significant for the rest of Africa. Morocco is not grappling with empty state coffers or a failing government. The country has a gross domestic product of nearly $150 billion. Its automotive industry became its leading export sector, generating more than 115 billion dirhams in 2024 and producing about 700,000 vehicles a year. Tanger Med port is connected to more than 180 ports worldwide. Morocco has largely pursued the development model commonly recommended to African economies. The Ceuta crossings bring the underlying dynamics into sharper focus. Research on income and migration points to a bell-shaped relationship: emigration tends to rise as countries develop, beginning to slow only when income per capita reaches about $5,000 and declining at around $10,000, according to migration researcher Michael Clemens. With per capita income approaching $10,000 in purchasing-power-parity terms, Morocco is near the top of that curve, where the propensity to emigrate may be at its highest. This does not excuse what happened. Rather, it makes the policy challenge more urgent. If economic growth tends to increase emigration during a prolonged stage of development, development policies must take that dynamic into account. Three Factors at WorkThree factors help explain the situation. First, as counterintuitive as it may seem, development gives prospective migrants the financial means to leave. Second, the labor market’s capacity to absorb new workers determines how many will seek opportunities abroad. Third, the availability of legal migration routes determines whether they travel safely by air or resort to dangerous irregular crossings. Morocco’s employment figures illustrate the problem. In 2025, the economy created 193,000 jobs, and unemployment fell to 13% from 13. 3%. However, unemployment among people aged 15 to 24 rose to 37. 2% from 36. 7%, while the number of underemployed people increased to 1. 19 million from 1. 08 million, according to data from the High Commission for Planning. Economic growth is creating jobs, but not enough of them and not quickly enough for the young generation seeking a future elsewhere. Morocco’s position near the peak of the migration curve is therefore reinforced by its youth employment crisis. Europe’s policy choices have further narrowed the available options. Most migration funding provided to Morocco over the past decade has gone toward border controls, with almost nothing allocated to opening legal employment pathways. Money was spent on keeping people out, not on managing migration. The two days of unrest in Ceuta left at least 18 people dead and prompted the deployment of the Spanish military in the enclave. Morocco also faces specific domestic pressures. Drought is weakening agriculture, and Rabat has pledged to take back those who entered Ceuta. None of that changes the underlying youth employment figures. Every year, 12 million young Africans enter the labor market, competing for about 3 million formal jobs. The continent is entering the same phase Morocco is now experiencing, but many African countries have less capacity to manage it. Beyond the outrage and, in some quarters, the derision, Ceuta carries a message for both Africa and Europe. It also underscores the need for genuine global economic solidarity. Idriss Linge