China-Africa Trade Jumps 24%, Yet Structural Imbalances Persist
Two-way trade between China and Africa reached $203. 5 billion in the first half of 2026. Chinese exports to Africa rose 26. 2%, while African exports to China increased 20. 3%. Africa's trade deficit with China widened to $56. 5 billion. Trade between China and Africa climbed 24% year over year to $203. 54 billion. . .
Two-way trade between China and Africa reached $203. 5 billion in the first half of 2026. Chinese exports to Africa rose 26. 2%, while African exports to China increased 20. 3%. Africa's trade deficit with China widened to $56. 5 billion. Trade between China and Africa climbed 24% year over year to $203. 54 billion in the first half of 2026, driven by strong growth in Chinese exports to the continent and a sharp increase in African shipments to the world's second-largest economy. Thefigures,released on July 15, by China's General Administration of Customs, show that Chinese exports to Africa rose 26. 2% between January and June to $130. 01 billion. Chinese imports from Africa also posted double-digit growth, increasing 20. 3% to $73. 53 billion over the same period. As a result, Africa's trade deficit with China widened to $56. 48 billion. The surge in Chinese exports comes as Beijing redirects more goods toward emerging markets after steep U. S. tariffs on Chinese products reduced its access to the American market. Meanwhile, the increase in China's imports from Africa appears to have been supported by higher prices for commodities such as oil, minerals, and metals. The impact of China's decision to eliminate tariffs on imports from the 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations is likely to have been limited during the period, as the measure only took effect on May 1, 2026. In addition, the expanded tariff exemption largely builds on an existing policy. Since December 1, 2024, 33 African least-developed countries had already benefited from duty-free access to the Chinese market. Africa's persistent trade deficit with China continues to reflect the structural imbalance in the composition of bilateral trade. China's imports from the continent remain heavily concentrated in low value-added commodities, including minerals, energy products, and agricultural goods. By contrast, its exports to Africa consist mainly of higher value-added manufactured products such as machinery, electronics, and green technologies. Removing deeper trade barriersThe structure of China-Africa trade has drawn growing criticism in recent years, with economists warning that the imbalance could eventually lead to trade tensions. In a report published in December 2025, Oxford Economics warned that another sharp increase in Chinese exports to Africa in 2026 could prompt several African countries to adopt anti-dumping measures against Chinese goods. These could include higher tariffs on products that compete with locally made goods, import quotas, and industrial policies designed to boost domestic production and consumption. To ease those concerns, China has gradually expanded tariff-free access for African exports. In 2023 and 2024, Beijing eliminated tariffs on 98% of imports from 21 African countries, including Ethiopia, Guinea, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Togo. Since December 1, 2024, it has also granted duty-free access to all imports from the least-developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations. On May 1, 2026, the policy was extended to all African countries that maintain diplomatic ties with China, including middle-income economies. Even so, experts argue that tariff cuts alone will not rebalance trade between the two sides. According to UN Comtrade data, 94. 5% of African exports to China already entered the country duty-free before the latest policy took effect. More importantly, Beijing's zero-tariff initiative does not address the underlying reasons Africa exports mostly raw materials, including limited industrial capacity and the lack of local processing for minerals and energy products. In a recent report, the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) said African countries will only fully benefit from China's duty-free market access if they also tackle long-standing structural and operational constraints. The bank recommends developing regional value chains in sectors with strong growth potential, including agricultural processing, light manufacturing, and mineral processing. It also calls for stronger transport and logistics infrastructure, such as industrial zones near ports, integrated rail links, dry ports, and cold storage networks. In addition, Afreximbank says African exporters should better align their products with the changing preferences of Chinese consumers while strengthening trade finance tools, including export credit insurance and trade loans denominated in Chinese yuan. Walid Kéfi