China Ramps Moves on Taiwan, Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Over - EUROPE SAYS
Analysts monitoring developments in the western Pacific say China has cranked up a process aimed at slowly surrounding and taking greater control of Taiwan. Beijing, they say, has signalled its intent to. . .
Analysts monitoring developments in the western Pacific say China has cranked up a process aimed at slowly surrounding and taking greater control of Taiwan. Beijing, they say, has signalled its intent to maintain a new coast guard patrol east of Taiwan, as it dials up pressure on the self-ruled island that it claims is part of its territory. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have been rising in the Middle East, with US President Donald Trump saying the ceasefire with Iran is over and calling Tehran “sick” after Washington launched strikes on the Islamic Republic and Iran said it targeted US bases in the Gulf. ALSO SEE:Samsung Shares Sink, as El Nino Typhoons Rock China, Guam“As far as I’m concerned, it’s over,” Trump said at a NATO summit in Ankara, when asked if the truce with Iran was now finished. “It’s just a waste of time dealing with them. ”His remarks caused another spike in oil prices (more on that below). In the Asia-Pacific, there has been anger and concern afterChina fired a nuclear-capable missile on Monday, which more Pacific island states condemned on Wednesday. Tensions have also been high in waters west of Taiwan after the Chinese coast guard and other ships launched their first “law enforcement operation” in that area in June. During the operation, the China Coast Guard for the first time radioed cargo ships passing Taiwan for information about their crew and destination. Chinese state media said the operation was in response to talks between Japan and the Philippines to draw a boundary in those waters. But Taipei has branded China’s moves as “expansionism in disguise” and several Western governments expressed concern over the “novel” activity. China Coast Guard vessels patrolling the waters since then have been replaced by a second group that will “continue law enforcement patrols”, China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said on Saturday. “China is essentially announcing a new normal,” Ray Powell, director ofSeaLight, which monitors China’s maritime activities, told AFP. Navy ‘preparing for a blockade’China deploys fighter jets and navy ships around Taiwan on an almost daily basis, and Chinese coast guard ships regularly enter waters near Taiwan’s outer islands, including those off China. Until June, however, China Coast Guard’s presence in waters east of Taiwan had been limited to “blockade-style military exercises”, William Yang, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, told AFP. The patrols were “beyond just political signalling”, said Gregory Poling, director of theAsia Maritime Transparency Initiativeat the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Beijing appears to be claiming vast law enforcement rights across its claimed exclusive economic zone that go far beyond what is allowed by international law,” Poling told AFP. Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at the Taipei-basedInstitute for National Defense and Security Research, said China’s patrols were establishing “new operational norms”. “By conducting radio verification procedures for passing commercial vessels, China is effectively rehearsing the mechanisms required for a future blockade or quarantine,” he said. ‘Sashimi strategy’For years, China has steadily expanded its military and coast guard activities in waters around Taiwan and the region. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Ming-yen said on Monday that four Chinese formations, including warships, were operating in the Western Pacific, noting an “upward trend” in mobilisation during China’s peak maritime exercise season. “We’ve tracked a record high of over 110 #PLAN & #CCG vessels” along the First Island Chain, National Security Council chief Joseph Wu said on X on Saturday. Taiwan has responded to China’s new coast guard patrol by deploying two of its own coast guard vessels to monitor the two Chinese ships. The Chinese patrol has been generally operating between 74-124 nautical miles (137-230 kilometres) from Taiwan’s shores, which Taiwanese officials say is within the island’s exclusive economic zone. During last month’s operation, Taiwan heard for the first time China’s Coast Guard contacting three passing cargo ships for information about their crew numbers and port of destination. One of the cargo ships – a Singapore-flagged container ship – complied with China’s demands, a senior coast guard official has told AFP. Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en said on Wednesday that China had attempted to “establish a model where the shipping community feels the need to report to them”, but failed. Sung said China must be stopped “at the early stage” to ensure that it “never succeeds”. “We will make sure that (the patrols are) not permanent because they are not supposed to be here,” Sung told AFP. Chinese coast guard ships regularly patrol around the disputed Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu in Chinese, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing, and the contested South China Sea, which China claims almost in its entirety. “They seem to want people to understand that this is what they’re doing here,” Powell said of the patrols off Taiwan, describing them as “a step up the quarantine ladder … It’s a very unsubtle signal that they intend to stay there for the long term. ”Su said it fits into China’s “methodical” approach to expanding patrols around the region as part of a “sashimi strategy”. China is “making extremely thin, almost imperceptible slices that individually appear insignificant but collectively produce substantial changes to the strategic status quo,” he said. Oil prices rally after US strikes in MideastMeanwhile, oil prices jumped more than 5% on Wednesday as the Middle East crisis burst back into the spotlight with US and Iranian forces exchanging strikes after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling fresh supply fears. International benchmark Brent North Sea crude jumped 5. 3% to $78. 09 a barrel, while the main US contract, West Texas Intermediate, advanced 5. 4% to $74. 23 a barrel. The sudden flare-up has stoked concerns about peace talks between the foes as they look to end their conflict and fully reopen the crucial waterway. It added to the largely dour mood in Asia, where Seoul suffered another tech rout amid questions over stretched valuations and when companies will start realising profits from their eye-watering AI investments. US and Iranian forces reported hitting dozens of targets, putting more strain on an interim deal to end the Middle East war, while Washington revoked a temporary sanctions waiver for Iranian oil. Washington revoked the waiver and launched the new attacks on military sites in what the US military called retaliation for Iran’s strikes on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported a wave of explosions around the strait, while the country’s Revolutionary Guards said they had hit dozens of US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The three vessels were struck close to Oman, which had proposed a temporary transit corridor hugging its coastline – an initiative opposed by Tehran as it seeks to impose fees on ships using the waterway. Iran’s foreign ministry accused the United States of repeatedly violating a memorandum of understanding agreed between the two sides. Both main crude contracts jumped more than 2% on Wednesday – having climbed a similar amount on Tuesday – to two-week highs. Andreas Krieg, a security expert at King’s College London, said Iran was determined to stick to its demand of charging fees to use the strait, which Washington has said was not acceptable. “We are now in a sensitive period where potential alternatives to an Iranian toll or fee system are being explored,” he told AFP. “Iran is sending a clear signal that no alternative will be accepted. ”Kospi down over 5%Equities also suffered, with the fresh US-Iran tensions coming on top of a retreat from the tech sector that has powered markets to multiple record highs over the past two years. Seoul’s Kospi – which has been Asia’s poster child for the rally – sank more than 5% and has lost more than 20% since hitting a record high last month. Samsung again took a hit following arout on Tuesdaythat came despite forecasting its operating profit had rocketed more than 1,800% in the second quarter on the back of strong AI chip demand. The firm and rival SK Hynix both sank around 6%. There were also losses in Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta. London, Paris and Frankfurt opened with losses. However, Hong Kong rose more than 2% as traders chased beaten-down Chinese tech stocks, with Alibaba piling on 11% and JD. com up more than 3%. Singapore, Taipei and Manila also advanced. “After AI and tech sentiment had dominated market moves over the last couple of weeks, investors are now forced to move back to focusing on geopolitical tensions,” AT Global Markets’ Nick Twidale said. “And this should dominate market sentiment, especially if we see a further escalation in the coming sessions. ”The dollar held gains against its peers as the prospect of another hit to supplies from the Middle East fuelled concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer than feared, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates. Key figures around 0715 GMTWest Texas Intermediate: UP 3. 1% at $72. 63 a barrel. Brent North Sea Crude: UP 3. 1% at $76. 48 a barrel. Seoul – Kospi: DOWN 5. 4% at 7,246. 79 (close). Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 2. 1% at 66,819. 05 (close). Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 2. 5% at 24,083. 09. Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0. 5% at 3,970. 88 (close). London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0. 8% at 10,583. 25. Dollar/yen: UP at 162. 24 yen from 162. 09 yen on Tuesday. New York – Dow: DOWN 0. 3% at 52,925. 15 (close). AFP with additional input and editing by Jim PollardALSO SEE:Chinese Missile Seen as Challenge to Pacific ‘Zone of Peace’China Puts ‘National Security’ Rules on Overseas InvestmentsTech Rules Needed So World Doesn’t Lose Control of AI: ChinaYen Sinks to 40-Year Low Amid Deepening Row With ChinaKospi, Nikkei, Hang Seng Sink as Tech Doubts Rock Asia AgainVast Amount of Rare Metals Found Off Remote Japanese IsleChina Curbs Rare Earth Exports to Defence Firms, ChipmakersJim PollardJim Pollard is an Australian journalist based in Thailand since 1999. He worked for News Ltd papers in Sydney, Perth, London and Melbourne before travelling through SE Asia in the late 90s. He was a senior editor at The Nation for 17+ years.