China, the US, and Nuclear Energy Geopolitics in Southeast Asia
After launching its 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) in March, the Chinese government has been publishing sectoral plans, including the15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful Chinaand the15th Five-Year Plan for. . .
After launching its 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) in March, the Chinese government has been publishing sectoral plans, including the15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful Chinaand the15th Five-Year Plan for a New-type Energy Systemby the end of June. Apart from the domestic build-out of nuclear energy, both plans demonstrate China’s ambition to become a global leader in nuclear energy governance and reactor exports. Almost simultaneously, the United States, Japan, and South Korea announced a newMemorandum of Cooperationat the NATO Summit to accelerate the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) in third countries, beginning with the Indo-Pacific. These parallel developments signal that nuclear reactor exports are becoming an increasingly important arena of strategic competition. Since the Trump administration took office, the United States has linked the deployment of nuclear reactors, both domestically and internationally, tonational security. The “123 Agreement” for peaceful cooperation has been the key indicator of U. S. nuclear energy diplomacy. In recent years, new signatories to the 123 Agreements and countries expressing interest in them have concentrated in Southeast Asia – the same region where China is focusing its civil nuclear engagement. Southeast Asia’s Energy Security and Nuclear Energy ChallengesEnergy security is a major vulnerability for Southeast Asia, as highlighted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which60 percentof Southeast Asia’s crude oil passes. To cope with the disruptions, some Southeast Asian governments rolled out short-term measures tocurb energy demand. However, any such efforts will be short-lived. Southeast Asia’s electricity demand is projected to grow bymore than 100 TWhby 2030, driven by data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), and industrial needs. That will necessitate enhanced energy supply and security. With that in mind, some countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have demonstrated a strong interest in nuclear energy by settingnational targetsto operate their first nuclear reactors before 2035. Some other countries, including Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, and Thailand, are actively considering nuclear energy as part of their energy mix. These interests focus specifically onSMRs. Nuclear reactors are often viewed as having high upfront costs and long construction schedules. In the United States and Europe, new-built reactors have been rare in recent years, and the licensing process and loss of construction expertise have prolonged project timelines and further elevatedcosts. In contrast, most newly built reactors are built by Asian countries, mainlyChina and South Korea, which have proven their ability to build reactors on time and on budget. For new nuclear energy countries, operating nuclear power plants means not only building reactors but also developing the entire infrastructure, including the regulatory framework, human resources, safety culture, and more. The process, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), takes around10 to 15 years. As the life of a reactor has been extended to 60 to 80 years, and decommissioning takesanother 10 to 25 years, importing a reactor from another country means 100 years of political, logistical, educational, and legal alignment. Russia, China, and the United States are the major nuclear reactor exporters worldwide. Russia leads in the number of reactors exported with state-owned Rosatom. Its ability to cover the entire fuel cycle and its build-own-operate modelare attractive to new nuclear energy countries. Still, sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have significantly affected its financing and logistical capabilities, resulting inconstruction delays. China also adopts a state-owned company approach, withChina National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN)as the main players. Although China was once set to build30 reactorsin Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries by 2030, it has so far built reactors only in Pakistan. Chinese companies don’t own or operate the reactors in Pakistan, but thefuel supplyis dependent on China. The private sector has driven U. S. nuclear energy exports, but the government supports potential importing countries through multiple programs. Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST)builds capacity for countries with a strong focus on nuclear security, safety, and nonproliferation. Both theSMR Financing Toolkitby Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) andloans, guaranties, and investmentsby the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) are meant to support the high upfront investment of nuclear reactors that would cause a financial burden for countries. The United States does not take back spent fuel for export, but more and morepolicy discussionsfavor fuel recycling to boost its fuel capacity. In Southeast Asia, when deciding which country to import nuclear reactors from, countries consider multiple factors simultaneously. On the one hand, they value U. S. leadership in technology, regulatory framework, nonproliferation, and safety culture. Among Southeast Asian countries exploring nuclear energy, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand have all signed123 Agreements with the United States, while Malaysia has secured aMemorandum of Understanding (MoU)to begin negotiations. On the other hand, China’scost advantageand ability to finish on time are attractive, given these countries’ national targets on the horizon. The Engagement China and the U. S. -led Alliance Have Made in the RegionChina began civil nuclear cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2015 through its state-owned nuclear energy companies to build capacity in thenuclear energy workforce. After China’s Linglong One became the world’s first IAEA-approved land-based SMR model, it has demonstrated its ability to servethe needs of BRI countries, which include all ASEAN countries. However, despite leading the world in SMR progress, thecommercial operation timelinefor China’s first Linglong One has not been met. Due to the opacity of information, whether the first Linglong One can operate successfully remains a key question for countries considering nuclear energy options. The United States has made some regulatory breakthroughs in Southeast Asia. In 2025, U. S. nuclear companyThorcon Internationalreceived a first stage license from the Indonesian nuclear regulator, BAPETEN, for its molten salt reactor. Various government agencies have also stepped in to accelerate regulatory alignment to favor the adoption of U. S. technology in the region. The U. S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) funded the Manila Electric Company (Meralco) in the Philippines to conduct a study on integratingU. S. SMRs. The U. S. Department of Commerce set up anSMRs export working groupto assist the industry’s communications with Southeast Asian governments. These steps signal U. S. efforts to unify the private sector to form an export strategy. Despite the regulatory integration, the United States still has to overcome the construction bottleneck to appeal to Southeast Asian countries, and that’s where South Korea and Japan play key roles. South Korea is an emerging nuclear reactor construction power with its state-owned Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP), which has successfully builtfour large reactors in the UAE on schedule. The success has won them further deals with Egypt and Czechia, and KHNP has signed SMR cooperation MOUs withSingapore,the Philippines (Meralco), andThailand. Japan is a key supplier to the nuclear energy industry, with leading capabilities in heavy manufacturing:Japan Steel Works (JSW)supplies the world with 80 percent of the large forged components for nuclear reactors. In the2025 trade deal between the U. S. and Japan, leveraging Japan’s capabilities to rebuild the U. S. nuclear energy industry was a key focus. The Next Chapter of Nuclear Energy GeopoliticsWhile the move to integrate the capacities of the United States, South Korea, and Japan to create synergies and accelerate SMR exports has receivedpositive feedbackfrom the region, China is also continuing its efforts. Since the release of the 15 FYP, CNNC has signed new cooperation agreements withChina Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC),TBEA, andBank of China, citing international market expansion in all of them. CEEC is one of China’s largest overseas energy project developers, operating in140 countries and regions, while TBEA focuses on providingtotal solutionsfor renewable energy and transmission. CNNC has demonstratedthe intentionto integrate itself in other countries’ energy systems first and then work on the nuclear development agenda; these partnerships will strengthen its capabilities to do so. Southeast Asia has historically cooperated with China on economic agendas and collaborated with the United States on security. The region has been navigating nuclear energy cooperation with both sides. Amid the heightened geopolitical competition in nuclear energy exports, a global energy crisis, and rapid energy demand growth domestically, the region must find a way to maintain this balanced position while serving its own needs.