Climate Change Is Rewriting the Monsoon—and Exposing India’s Planning Failures - EUROPE SAYS
The monsoons are once again exposing the paradox of India’s climate. Weak monsoons raise fears of drought, reduced crop yields, rising food prices, and declining rural incomes; farmers delay sowing, inflation. . .
The monsoons are once again exposing the paradox of India’s climate. Weak monsoons raise fears of drought, reduced crop yields, rising food prices, and declining rural incomes; farmers delay sowing, inflation rises, and economic growth slows down. Yet, when the rains finally arrive, they often come as short, intense downpours, triggering floods, landslides, and infrastructure failures. Instead of bringing relief, the monsoons are increasingly wreaking havoc. The recent landslide disaster at the Anakkampoyil-Kalladi-Meppadi tunnel site in Kerala highlights this latter challenge. While heavy rainfall may have triggered the disaster, questions remain: Were repeated safety warnings ignored? Was the excavated debris managed properly? Did the various agencies responsible for oversight discharge their duties effectively?Around the same time, a road collapse and landslides disrupted the Pune-Mumbai National Highway, causing massive traffic congestion. This incident exposed just how vulnerable critical transport infrastructure is to extreme weather conditions. Such disasters are commonplace in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu & Kashmir. It becomes evident that these natural calamities are not isolated incidents; rather, they are part of a broader pattern of disasters—exacerbated by climate change—stemming from poor planning, unchecked construction in fragile ecosystems, and lax enforcement of safety and environmental regulations. The economic impact of these disasters extends far beyond the immediate loss of life and property. Roads, bridges, railways, and power projects suffer damage; tourism is disrupted, and businesses are forced to close. Governments spend thousands of crores of rupees on relief and reconstruction efforts. Simultaneously, weak monsoons drive up inflation and reduce agricultural output. Consequently, India pays a double price: first due to deficient rainfall, and later due to excessive rainfall occurring in the wrong places and at the wrong times. While governments readily undertake disaster mitigation measures when such calamities strike, they often appear indifferent regarding precautionary steps. Government responses remain largely reactive. Disaster warnings, environmental regulations, and safety guidelines frequently exist only on paper, while their actual implementation and the associated accountability remain weak. While infrastructure projects proceed in ecologically sensitive areas without adequate safety measures, far less attention is paid to climate adaptation compared to post-disaster relief. As climate change renders weather patterns increasingly unpredictable, India requires robust environmental governance, scientific planning, and strict accountability. These aspects must be accorded due priority in the government’s development agenda. Failure to do so means acknowledging that both weak monsoons and extreme rainfall will continue to devastate lives, livelihoods, and the economy. The Indian summer monsoon is the backbone of the subcontinent’s socio-economic life, influencing agriculture, water resources, energy production, and the national economy. Excessive monsoon rainfall causes devastating floods and infrastructure damage, whereas deficient rainfall leads to droughts, crop losses, and water scarcity. Furthermore, the design of roads, bridges, dams, coastal infrastructure, and urban drainage systems must be heavily informed by projections regarding future changes in monsoon winds and rainfall patterns. This is because these structures need to endure for decades, not merely for a few years. Therefore, understanding how monsoons evolve in a warming climate is essential for planning a climate-resilient future. To this end, climate scientists often rely on global climate models developed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). These models simulate the atmosphere, ocean, and land in an integrated manner, enabling a continuous exchange of interactions. For instance, strong winds over the ocean enhance mixing and cool the sea surface; in turn, the cooled ocean modifies the winds. This creates a feedback loop that shapes weather and climate patterns. Such interactions are crucial for realistically simulating monsoons. However, these models are not perfect. Errors in representing the ocean, atmosphere, or land can propagate through the climate system and affect the simulated monsoons. This is particularly significant for India, as monsoon winds travel across the Indian Ocean for a large part of their journey before reaching the subcontinent. Consequently, an inaccurate representation of the ocean can lead to an inaccurate representation of the monsoons. According to a new study, climate change could significantly reduce water availability in urban areas by the middle of this century, driving up infrastructure costs and household water bills. A latest report by Child Rights and You (CRY) indicates nearly seven out of ten children in India missed school or skipped their daily activities last summer due to heat-related issues. Seventy-six percent stated that extreme heat affected their concentration. The report found that 88 percent of the surveyed children felt the summer was hotter than in previous years. It also revealed that 45 percent of the children found school timings particularly uncomfortable during periods of intense heat. Approximately 63 percent of the children reported suffering from dehydration, 51 percent from headaches, and 44 percent from severe fatigue due to the heat. Among the states surveyed, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal reported the highest levels of disruption. In Andhra Pradesh, over 88 percent of the surveyed children reported being unable to attend school or participate in daily activities due to extreme heat. In West Bengal, this figure stood at nearly 72 percent, which is higher than the national average. Meanwhile, the Environment Ministry has notified the constitution of two new standing bodies to fast-track environmental clearances in states and Union Territories, a move that has raised concerns over weaker scrutiny of potentially damaging projects and the risk of further environmental degradation. Unlike the Centre’s EAC (Expert Appraisal Committee), and the SEIAA and SEAC under the EIA (Environment Impact Assessment) Notification, 2006, the chairpersons and all members of the new bodies are not required to possess domain expertise, such as 15 years of relevant experience or a PhD in a related field. Moreover, the bodies are dominated by government officials, rather than experts. Experts have warned that reducing mandatory requirements for specialised environmental expertise in bodies responsible for appraising projects could dilute scrutiny of ecological impacts. Weaker appraisal could, in turn, increase the risk of environmentally damaging projects securing clearances without adequate assessment of their consequences. Subscribe to Our NewsletterGet the latest CounterCurrents updates delivered straight to your inbox. Ch. Narendra, a senior journalist, based in Hyderabad, worked with New Indian Express Group for more than two decades, besides some other media organisations. Also actively associated with human rights groups like Amnesty International, PUCL, Human Rights Defenders Alert- India and Human Rights Society.