Climate change, monsoon-Western Disturbance interaction fuel cloudbursts
Srinagar, Aug 4: Moisture-laden southwest monsoon winds interacting with Western Disturbances are triggering cloudbursts and short-duration intense showers across Jammu and Kashmir. Rising temperatures are. . .
Srinagar, Aug 4: Moisture-laden southwest monsoon winds interacting with Western Disturbances are triggering cloudbursts and short-duration intense showers across Jammu and Kashmir. Rising temperatures are increasing atmospheric moisture, making extreme rainfall events more likely, meteorologists and climate experts said. More than 35 cloudbursts and several high-intensity rainfall events have been reported across J&K this year. Flash floods and landslides linked to these events have left at least 31 people dead so far and damaged homes, roads, bridges and farmland. Fresh incidents were reported Tuesday from parts of Kashmir and Jammu after cloudbursts and torrential rains battered Pahalgam, Shopian, Bandipora, Gurez, Lolab, Ganderbal, Kishtwar and parts of Drass in Ladakh on Monday. A woman was left dead in Lolab. The deadliest episode occurred on July 19, when flash floods and landslides in Poonch and Rajouri killed more than 25 people. Cloudbursts and intense downpours have also affected Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, Reasi, Samba and Kathua. Meteorological (MeT) Department Director Mukhtar Ahmad said monsoon currents interacting with mostly feeble Western Disturbances (WDs) create conditions for short-duration, high-intensity rainfall. "As the monsoon advances, such events become more frequent, especially in mountainous districts. Forecasting has improved with Doppler radars, satellite observations and automated weather stations, but pinpointing a cloudburst or downpour remains difficult as these systems develop over very small areas," Ahmad said. He said rainfall distribution has remained uneven, with intense showers confined to pockets. Despite several wet spells since April, only a few brought widespread and uniform rainfall across Kashmir, while many areas, particularly plains, continued to face deficits. "For every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold nearly 7 percent more moisture. This increases the possibility of intense rainfall over a short period," Ahmad said. Experts said cloudbursts and intense showers have occurred in Jammu and Kashmir during monsoon and pre-monsoon months, including March and April, but their frequency and intensity have increased in recent years. Climatologist Sonam Lotus said Himalayan terrain plays a key role in concentrating rainfall. "When moisture-laden air rises along mountain slopes, it cools rapidly and forms deep convective clouds through the orographic process. These systems can produce cloudbursts or intense rain over limited areas," Lotus said. He said climate change is increasing the vulnerability of the Himalayan region. "Fragile Himalayan geology, unplanned development, pressure on natural resources and climate change are increasing vulnerability," Lotus said. Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a hydrogeologist at the National Institute of Hydrology, Jammu, said warming temperatures are stressing mountain ecosystems. "Changing rainfall patterns are increasing risks of flash floods, landslides and slope failures, putting ecosystems adapted to gradual seasonal shifts under stress," Mir said. Independent weather forecaster Faizan Ahmad said flash floods are not always caused by cloudbursts. "A cloudburst generally means about 100 millimetres of rainfall in an hour. But even 60 millimetres of intense short-duration rain can trigger flash floods in steep terrain because runoff is extremely rapid," he said. The India Meteorological Department has forecast unsettled weather across J&K through August 11, with rain and thundershowers expected at many places through Aug. 8. Rainfall is likely to remain scattered over Kashmir from August 9 to 11. The department has warned of flash floods, landslides, mudslides, shooting stones and isolated cloudbursts in vulnerable areas. The latest spell follows repeated extreme weather last year, when J&K witnessed cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, rockfalls, shooting stones, hailstorms and gusty winds from April to September. The Srinagar-Jammu National Highway remained closed for more than 50 days in separate spells due to landslides and shooting stones, stranding apple-laden trucks and causing losses to growers and traders. Hailstorms, gusty winds and intense rain also damaged orchards between April and June this year, affecting blossoms and young fruit during key growth stages. According to Ministry of Home Affairs figures shared in the RajyaSabha, floods and heavy rainfall killed 199 people in J&K last year. The events also killed 11,693 livestock, damaged 8404 houses and affected 77,915 hectares of farmland. The deadliest incident was the August 14, 2025 cloudburst at Chisoti village along the Machail Mata Yatra route in Gulabgadh -PaddarKishtwar, where nearly 70 people were killed and several others, mostly yatris, went missing in flash floods.