EU Import Rule Changes Trigger Sharp Decline in Hong Kong-Europe Air Cargo Volumes - Cargo Newswire
New customs regulations and the removal of the de minimis exemption weigh heavily on e-commerce shipments, while transpacific trade remains resilient. Air cargo traffic from Hong Kong to Europe has fallen sharply […]
New customs regulations and the removal of the de minimis exemption weigh heavily on e-commerce shipments, while transpacific trade remains resilient. Air cargo traffic fromHong Kong to Europehas fallen sharply following the European Union’s introduction of new import regulations on1 July 2026, with freight volumes declining by more than 20% in recent weeks as e-commerce shipments adjust to the revised customs framework. According to the latest weekly market analysis fromWorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from Hong Kong to Europe declined by a further5% week-on-weekduringWeek 29 (13–19 July), marking thefifth consecutive weekly decline. Compared with the same week in 2025, volumes were down24%, while average tonnage duringWeeks 26 to 29fell18% year-on-year, based on data covering more than500,000 weekly air cargo transactions. EU Customs Changes Reshape Cargo FlowsThe sharp decline coincides with the implementation of new EU import rules that eliminated the long-standingde minimis exemptionfor consignments valued below€150. Under the revised regulations, low-value shipments entering the European Union are now subject to afixed €3 charge per item, alongside enhanced customs reporting requirements. Hong Kong has experienced the most significant impact due to its heavy reliance on cross-border e-commerce traffic, which has traditionally accounted for a substantial share of outbound air cargo destined for European consumers. Mainland China also recorded weaker demand, with cargo volumes to Europe declining2% week-on-weekin Week 29 after falling9%the previous week. Compared with the same period last year, Chinese exports to Europe were down10%, while average volumes across Weeks 26 to 29 declined8% year-on-year. Combined cargo volumes fromChina and Hong Kongto Europe contracted11%during the four-week period, contrasting with5% growthrecorded across the rest of the global air cargo market. Wider Impact Across Asia-PacificThe regulatory changes have also affected several other export markets across Asia-Pacific. In Week 29, air cargo volumes to Europe fromVietnamdeclined9% year-on-year, while shipments fromThailandfell11%. Overall, chargeable weight from the Asia-Pacific region to Europe dropped13% year-on-yearduring both Weeks 28 and 29, with the downturn largely driven by weaker exports from China and Hong Kong. The figures underline the sensitivity of e-commerce-driven air cargo flows to regulatory changes, particularly in markets where low-value consumer goods represent a significant proportion of exports. Transpacific Market Remains StableIn contrast to the European market, air cargo demand betweenChina, Hong Kong and the United Statesremained comparatively resilient. Cargo volumes from China to the U. S. increased19% year-on-yearin Week 29, while Hong Kong shipments rose8%. Combined volumes from Asia-Pacific to the United States increased3% week-on-weekand were15% higherthan the previous year. The year-on-year gains partly reflect weaker comparison figures from 2025, when U. S. imports from China and Hong Kong declined following changes to American de minimis import rules introduced last year. Taiwan also contributed to the recovery, with cargo volumes rebounding32% week-on-weekafter flight disruptions caused byTyphoon Baviaffected operations during Week 28. Spot Rates Ease on Europe RoutesFreight rates from Asia-Pacific to Europe continued to soften as cargo demand weakened. Spot rates fromChina to Europedeclined for a fourth consecutive week, falling5%to an average ofUS$4. 17 per kilogramduring Week 29. Although rates remain8% higherthan a year earlier, largely due to elevated fuel costs and surcharges linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the premium over 2025 levels has narrowed considerably. Two months ago, spot prices were between30% and 40% higherthan the previous year. Average spot rates across Asia-Pacific to Europe stood atUS$4. 63 per kilogram, remaining20% abovelast year’s level. Meanwhile, rates to the United States remained firm atUS$6. 61 per kilogramdespite modest declines from China and Hong Kong, supported by higher prices from South Korea and Taiwan. Overall, Asia-Pacific to U. S. spot rates were36% higher year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand, constrained capacity and increased fuel surcharges. Global Air Cargo Market Holds SteadyDespite regional volatility, the broader air cargo market remained relatively stable. Worldwide cargo tonnage was unchanged week-on-week during Week 29, as stronger exports from Asia-Pacific offset weaker demand in other regions. Globally, air cargo volumes increased3% year-on-year, with Asia-Pacific exports rising6%. Average global freight rates eased slightly toUS$3. 00 per kilogram, down1% week-on-weekbut still23% higherthan a year earlier. Global spot rates edged up toUS$3. 46 per kilogram, with Africa recording the strongest weekly increase. Air cargo capacity also improved modestly, rising1% week-on-weekand standing3% abovepre-conflict levels recorded before the outbreak of the recent U. S. -Iran conflict. However, capacity serving theMiddle East and South Asiaremains constrained, with available lift still13% belowpre-conflict levels and Gulf market capacity down by approximately22%. The latest market data highlights how regulatory changes, geopolitical uncertainty and evolving trade patterns continue to reshape global air cargo flows, particularly for e-commerce shipments that have become a major driver of international freight demand.