Europe's migrant crisis is opening the door for the far-right at a critical moment
As tens ofthousands of Moroccans entered the Spanish exclave of Ceutalast week, Europe’s mainstream politicians looked to outbid thefar rightin terms of their knee-jerk reactions. Some echoed calls to. . .
As tens ofthousands of Moroccans entered the Spanish exclave of Ceutalast week, Europe’s mainstream politicians looked to outbid thefar rightin terms of their knee-jerk reactions. Some echoed calls to kickSpainout of the Schengen zone, while others accused the government of boosting illegal migration when it offeredresidency to those already in the country. The long-term impact on electoral fortunes is yet to be seen – but adopting far-right talking points might unwittingly havestrengthened the very forcesthat could take down Europe’s centre-left and centre-right parties. ShortsStudieshave long pointed to the futility of accommodating far-right views onimmigration, while suggesting that there is no evidence it enhances the appeal of mainstream parties. Instead, voters are more inclined to reject the copycats. Several European countries head to polls next year, and it is pretty obvious that the far right will exploit the dramatic images of hordes ofMoroccanmen crossing illegally into Spanish territory. The first major test of how the Ceuta crisis will affect European politics will be witnessed inFrancein April, when voters decide on a new president. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally, has been allowed to run despite beingconvicted of embezzling EU funds, allegedly used to pay the salaries of her bodyguard and personal assistant, among other party staff. Her party is strongly anti-immigrant. The images from Spain have therefore arrived as an unexpected political gift for Le Pen. France’s top far-right figure, Marine Le Pen, centre, is looking to benefit from the migrant crisis affecting Spain (Photo: Telmo Pinto/Getty)Federica Genovese, a professor of political science at the University of Oxford, said that like all immigration crises, Ceuta will give ammunition to the far right. “It will continue being weaponised by the European forces questioning more integration,” she toldThe i Paper. Even so, Genovese asserted that a lot can happen between now and 2027, and much will depend on the media coverage. Images ofhundreds of thousands of refugeesfrom the Middle East crossing through the Balkans into Europe in late 2015 gave right-wing parties a potent tool, which was used to startling effect in the2016 Brexit referendumin the UK. “The big question is how much the media will entertain the logic of ‘invasion’, which keeps helping the far-right narrative,” Genovese said. Tainted with the charge of stealing public money, Le Pen has sought to turn every issue into evidence of state failure – from air-conditioning shortages in public-service buildings during the heatwave to a lack of preparedness, equipment and civil protection in the face of thewildfires. It’s easy to see her usingCeuta to burnish her credentialsas France’s saviour from illegal immigrants, and to ride that wave to power in April. “In 2027, we will stop this madness by reserving Schengen free movement for EU nationals,” she recently posted on social media. Le Pen’s position has evolved over time, revealing a politically expedient approach rather than a principled stand. In the 2017 presidential campaign, she explicitly campaigned on leaving the EU. In 2019, she indicated the goal was to change the EU from within and not leave Schengen. About 100 Moroccan migrants died while crossing into Ceuta on 30 July. An estimated 75,000 people entered the city, with the vast majority returning home within days (Photo: Antonio Sempere/AP)Former French prime ministerÉdouard Philippeis Le Pen’s main opponent and offered perfunctory support for Spain, before blaming Spanish Prime MinisterPedro Sánchezfor causing the crisis. “It is not acceptable for one country to decide on its own to carry outmass regularisationsthat create a pull factor for the entire continent,” heposted on X, echoing Le Pen’s line. “I will propose that this model be completely overhauled,” he added. The latestmigrant crisisto hit Europe has once again shown how easily mainstream parties succumb to amplifying the rhetoric of the anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic far right. Denmark’sPrime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, who leads the centre-left Social Democratic Party, called on the EU to “consider all options” against Spain, “including a suspension of Schengen co-operation”, while Manfred Weber, a German politician and leader of the biggest centre-right grouping in the EU Parliament, added his voice to the growing chorus that said the Ceuta crisis was a “direct consequence” of Sanchez’s earlier move. Italian Prime MinisterGiorgia Meloni, leader of the hard-right political group Brothers of Italy, lashed out at Spain’s prime minister and suspended air and sea travel with the country. But her response should also be seen as an attempt to throw off her main domestic rival, former army general Roberto Vannacci, who leads a new far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, which is busy leveraging the Ceuta crisis. Failure to fact-checkMeanwhile, mainstream parties are notably failing to fact-check the far-right’s more incendiary claims. Moroccans do not automatically gain access to the Schengen area if they enter Ceuta. They still need to show proper documents before entering mainland Spain. In 2021, around 8,000 Moroccans entered the exclave. Spain managed to deport most of them in a short period of time. A vast majority of the estimated 75,000 Moroccans who entered Ceuta last week went back within days. The far right has ignored these facts, which is unsurprising. But for the most part so have mainstream European parties. The question is whether they will continue borrowing talking points from the far right, or if they attempt to move beyond the heated, more populist rhetoric. On Tuesday, as 22 EU member states called for an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis, a message of solidarity with Spain was finally issued, with Ireland’s justice minister Jim O’Callaghan, who chaired the meeting, saying that migration required a “united European response”. That may help to lift some pressure off the country for now, but if anything the last week has revealed deep divisions that might galvanise the continent’s far right as elections near.