Hong Kong to Europe volumes slump as new EU rules kick in - Air Cargo Week
Hong Kong to Europe air cargo tonnage fell 24 percent year-on-year in week 29, with volumes declining for five consecutive weeks following the EU’s 1 July removal of the €150 de minimis exemption and. . .
Hong Kong to Europe air cargo tonnage fell 24 percent year-on-year in week 29, with volumes declining for five consecutive weeks following the EU’s 1 July removal of the €150 de minimis exemption and introduction of new customs fees and reporting requirements. China–Europe volumes were also affected, down 10 percent year-on-year in week 29. While Asia Pacific to Europe traffic declined 13 percent year-on-year in weeks 28 and 29, transpacific volumes remained more resilient, with China and Hong Kong to the US increasing 19 percent and 8 percent respectively year-on-year in week 29. Overall Asia Pacific to US cargo rose 15 percent year-on-year. Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates continued to decline, with China–Europe rates falling to US$4. 17 per kg, although still above last year’s levels. Global air cargo rates remained elevated, with average rates at US$3. 00 per kg, up 23 percent year-on-year, while capacity increased slightly despite ongoing geopolitical disruption. China–Europe air cargo volumes weakened sharply after EU import rule changes: Hong Kong to Europe air cargo tonnage fell 24 percent year-on-year in week 29, with volumes declining for five consecutive weeks following the EU’s 1 July removal of the €150 de minimis exemption and introduction of new customs fees and reporting requirements. China–Europe volumes were also affected, down 10 percent year-on-year in week 29. Asia Pacific routes diverged by market: While Asia Pacific to Europe traffic declined 13 percent year-on-year in weeks 28 and 29, transpacific volumes remained more resilient, with China and Hong Kong to the US increasing 19 percent and 8 percent respectively year-on-year in week 29. Overall Asia Pacific to US cargo rose 15 percent year-on-year. Rates softened but remained elevated: Asia Pacific–Europe spot rates continued to decline, with China–Europe rates falling to US$4. 17 per kg, although still above last year’s levels. Global air cargo rates remained elevated, with average rates at US$3. 00 per kg, up 23 percent year-on-year, while capacity increased slightly despite ongoing geopolitical disruption. Air cargo tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe have plummeted in the weeks surrounding the start of new EU import duty rules on 1 July, down by more than 20 percent by mid-July compared with their levels at this time last year and in early June. According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from Hong Kong to Europe fell by another 5 percent in week 29 (13 to 19 July), the fifth consecutive week-on-week (WoW) decline. That meant Hong Kong to Europe volumes were down by almost one quarter (24 percent) compared with the equivalent week last year. Averaged across weeks 26 to 29, tonnages were down by 18 percent, year on year (YoY), based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Traffic from mainland China fell by a further 2 percent, WoW, in week 29, after dropping 9 percent the previous week, taking tonnages from China to Europe down 10 percent, YoY. Averaged across weeks 26 to 29, volumes from China to Europe were down by 8 percent, YoY. Combined tonnages for China and Hong Kong to Europe across those four weeks were down 11 percent, YoY, whereas the remainder of the global market recorded 5 percent YoY growth in the same period. The steep drop in tonnages from China to Europe during that time, particularly from Hong Kong, is linked to the introduction in the European Union (EU), from 1 July, of new import rules involving the removal of the previous ‘de minimis’ exemption on items valued below €150, introducing a fixed fee of €3 per item plus new customs reporting requirements. Traffic from Hong Kong has been most affected by the new rule changes because, in recent years, it has contained a very high percentage of e-commerce volumes. Volumes to Europe from some other significant origin countries in Asia Pacific have also seen substantial declines in the three weeks since the implementation of the new EU rules, with tonnages from Vietnam and Thailand down, YoY, by 9 percent and 11 percent, respectively, in week 29. Overall, chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to Europe was down by 13 percent, YoY, in both weeks 28 and 29, mainly driven by the declines from China and Hong Kong. Transpacific comparisonThe transpacific market from China and Hong Kong to the US has been relatively stable in the last few weeks, at least compared with the China/HK to Europe market. Although there has been some volatility, with volumes rising or falling by a few percentage points each week, there has been no major shift in overall direction. In week 29, tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the US rose by 1 percent, WoW, taking them 19 percent and 8 percent higher, respectively, YoY. However, it is worth noting that this time last year, traffic volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US were in negative territory (10 percent down, YoY, in week 29) due to the removal in May 2025 of the US de minimis import exemption on goods made in China and Hong Kong. Total tonnages from Asia Pacific to the US regained 3 percent, WoW, in week 29, having dipped 4 percent, WoW, the previous week, taking them 15 percent higher compared with last year. The rebound in week 29 was partly due to the recovery in volumes from Taiwan (32 percent, WoW), which had been negatively impacted in week 28 by flight cancellations due to Typhoon Bavi. Spot rates continue to fallSpot rates from Asia Pacific origins to Europe have fallen, WoW, for four consecutive weeks, mainly driven by rate reductions from China to Europe. A further 5 percent WoW decline in week 29 lowered average China to Europe spot rates to US$4. 17 per kilo. The ongoing disruptions to global air cargo markets due to the US war with Iran, and the subsequent inflation of jet fuel prices and fuel surcharges, mean that spot rates from China to Europe in week 29 were still 8 percent higher, YoY. But that gap with last year has narrowed significantly compared with the level two months ago, when spot prices were 30 to 40 percent higher, YoY, from China to Europe, and from Asia Pacific to Europe more broadly. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe in week 29 of US$4. 63 per kilo remained 20 percent higher, YoY. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US were stable in week 29 at US$6. 61 per kilo, with WoW declines from China (5 percent) and Hong Kong (4 percent) offset by increases from South Korea (5 percent) and Taiwan (5 percent). However, compared with last year, spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US in week 29 were 36 percent higher. Those highly elevated spot rates have been present since early April, due to a combination of strong demand, limited capacity, and higher fuel surcharges resulting from the US-Iran conflict. Global pictureTotal worldwide tonnages in week 29 were stable, WoW, with a 4 percent increase from Asia Pacific origins offset by falls in volumes from the other main global air cargo origin regions. Global tonnages were up 3 percent, YoY, with volumes from Asia Pacific origins up by 6 percent. Average global air cargo rates of US$3. 00 per kilo were down slightly (1 percent), WoW, based on a mix of spot rates and contract rates, but were 23 percent higher, YoY, while worldwide spot rates edged slightly (1 percent) higher, WoW, to US$3. 46 per kilo, with the biggest increase coming from African origins (8 percent, WoW). Global spot rates were 30 percent higher, YoY. Despite the renewed conflict in the Middle East, total worldwide air cargo capacity edged upward by 1 percent, WoW, in week 29, due largely to a 4 percent increase from Asia Pacific origins, taking worldwide capacity to 3 percent above the level seen in week 7, prior to the start of the US-Iran conflict. But capacity to and from the Middle East & South Asia region remains significantly below (13 percent) its pre-war level, with capacity from Gulf markets around 22 percent lower.