IMF Completes Ghana Review, Approves New Policy Tool - EUROPE SAYS
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the sixth and final review of the US$3 billion, 39-month Arrangement under the ECF for Ghana,approved by the Board. . .
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the sixth and final review of the US$3 billion, 39-month Arrangement under the ECF for Ghana,approved by the Board in May 2023. The Executive Board also concluded the 2026Article IV consultationand reviewed -at the authorities’ request-a 36-month non-financingPolicy Coordination Instrument(PCI). [1]The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. [2]In completing the review, the Executive Board approved a waiver of non-observance of the end-December 2025 performance criteria pertaining to the ceiling on Bank of Ghana (BoG) claims on the central government and public entities that was temporarily breached by a small margin due to cost-sharing arrangements under the domestic gold purchase program (DGPP). based on the temporary nature of deviation and corrective actions carried out by the authorities. Completion of this review allows for an immediate and final disbursement of about US$371 million (SDR 265. 9 million), bringing Ghana’s total disbursements under the arrangement to about US$3 billion. The PCI will help anchor Ghana’s continued reform agenda beyond the ECF, signaling a credible commitment to upper-credit-tranche-quality policies and helping catalyze donor and market financing. Ghana’s ECF-supported program has delivered substantial stabilization and debt-sustainability gains. Real GDP grew 6 percent in 2025-accelerating to 6. 4 percent year-on-year in 2026Q1-driven by broad-based activity. Headline inflation fell to 5. 4 percent at end-2025 and to 5. 3 percent in June 2026, reflecting prudent monetary policy, cedi appreciation, and improved food supply. The current account posted a large surplus of 7. 9 percent of GDP in 2025 supported by historically high gold prices, and gross international reserves nearly doubled to US$11. 9 billion (4 months of imports) by end-2025. The primary fiscal balance improved to a surplus of 2. 1 percent of GDP. Ghana’s risk of external and overall debt distress has been upgraded to moderate, two years earlier than expected at program approval, as all debt indicators are below their LIC-DSF thresholds. The Ghanaian authorities have made significant progress on their comprehensive public debt restructuring. Debt relief agreements consistent with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) agreement have been signed with more than half of bilateral creditors, and agreements-in-principle have been reached with a similar share of external commercial creditors. Good-faith engagement with the remaining external commercial creditors is ongoing with a restructuring consistent with program parameters and comparability of treatment. In light of this progress and continued stabilization gains, Ghana’s debt risk rating has been upgraded to moderate. The 2026 budget targets a primary surplus of 1. 5 percent of GDP, consistent with program objectives and Ghana’s new fiscal responsibility framework. Recent improvements in the debt trajectory have created carefully calibrated fiscal space under the PCI. This space will help Ghana address pressing development needs and strengthen social spending, while preserving attainment of Ghana’s 45 percent of GDP debt anchor by 2034. Lowering the primary surplus to 0. 5 percent of GDP from 2027 would remain consistent with safeguarding debt sustainability, provided that further progress is made in strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, improving public financial management and investment management, and enhancing state-owned enterprise oversight-particularly in the energy and cocoa sectors. The Bank of Ghana has cautiously eased its monetary policy stance as inflation has fallen within its target range. In collaboration with Fund staff, the BoG has operationalized a foreign exchange operations framework to help intermediate foreign exchange flows, smooth excessive market volatility, and support continued reserve accumulation. Safeguarding central bank independence remains critical to sustaining monetary policy credibility, including by implementing the transfer of the DGPP to GoldBod, permanently discontinuing quasi-fiscal activities, and fulfilling the commitment to recapitalize the BoG by 2032. Financial sector resilience has continued to improve, but vulnerabilities persist, particularly in some state-owned and private banks and among specialized deposit-taking institutions. Sustained supervisory action, decisive corrective measures, and the finalization of the crisis management and resolution framework are essential to safeguard financial stability and support a durable recovery in credit intermediation. Governance and anti-corruption reforms have also advanced, including through the submission to Parliament of the revised Conduct of Public Officials bill. Timely and effective implementation of the reformed asset-declaration framework will be critical to strengthen transparency, accountability, and public trust. Following the Executive Board discussion on Ghana, Deputy Managing Director Bo Li issued the following statement:Executive Board Assessment[3]Ghana’s performance under its ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory. The authorities’ sustained reform efforts-combined with favorable commodity-price developments-have delivered substantial macroeconomic stabilization and debt sustainability gains. Inflation has fallen sharply, international reserves have been rebuilt beyond program targets, and the primary fiscal balance has swung from a large deficit to a surplus. The comprehensive debt restructuring is largely complete, and Ghana’s risk of debt distress has returned to moderate. Going forward, sustained reform implementation under the new Policy Coordination Instrument is essential to consolidate these gains and address remaining vulnerabilities. Maintaining fiscal discipline remains a key priority in addressing Ghana’s pressing development, social, and security needs, while safeguarding debt sustainability consistent with Ghana’s debt anchor. To this end, it is paramount to further strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, improve public financial and investment management, and enhance state-owned enterprise oversight, particularly in the energy and cocoa sectors, while strengthening social protection for the most vulnerable. The Bank of Ghana has successfully anchored disinflation and rebuilt external buffers, while cautiously easing its policy stance. Looking ahead, preserving monetary policy credibility will hinge squarely on safeguarding central bank independence, fully implementing the transfer of the domestic gold purchase program to GoldBod, permanently discontinuing quasi-fiscal activities, and delivering on the recapitalization plan. While financial sector resilience has improved, vulnerabilities persist, particularly in some state-owned and private banks and specialized deposit-taking institutions. Looking ahead, safeguarding financial stability warrants decisive corrective measures, robust supervision, and finalization of the crisis management and resolution framework. Sustained progress on governance-including timely enactment of the reformed Conduct of Public Officials bill-will further bolster transparency, accountability, and public trust. Ghana: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2024-312024 2025 2026 2027 20282029 20302031Actual5th ECF ReviewPrel. 5th ECF Review Proj. 5th ECF ReviewProj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. (annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)National accounts and pricesGDP at constant prices5. 84. 86. 04. 84. 84. 94. 95. 05. 05. 05. 0Non-extractive GDP5. 35. 37. 04. 94. 45. 05. 05. 14. 95. 05. 0Extractive GDP9. 41. 7-0. 94. 27. 74. 33. 64. 15. 84. 44. 5Real GDP per capita3. 92. 94. 03. 03. 03. 13. 03. 23. 33. 23. 3GDP deflator25. 914. 714. 47. 66. 17. 98. 28. 37. 88. 28. 2Consumer price index (end of period)23. 88. 05. 48. 08. 08. 08. 08. 08. 08. 08. 0Consumer price index (annual average)22. 915. 014. 27. 95. 97. 57. 78. 08. 08. 08. 0(percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)Central government budgetRevenue15. 816. 015. 716. 816. 816. 816. 817. 117. 417. 317. 3Expenditure (commitment basis) 121. 818. 417. 018. 81918. 619. 719. 920. 620. 620. 6Overall balance (commitment basis) 1-6. 0-2. 4-1. 3-2. 0-2. 2-1. 8-2. 9-2. 9-3. 2-3. 3-3. 3Primary balance (commitment basis)-2. 11. 72. 11. 51. 51. 50. 50. 50. 50. 50. 5Non-oil primary balance (commitment basis)-3. 71. 01. 50. 60. 50. 5-0. 3-0. 3-0. 3-0. 3-0. 3Public debt (gross)70. 156. 648. 854. 952. 652. 751. 750. 649. 948. 948. 0Domestic debt32. 628. 526. 327. 826. 926. 927. 227. 127. 327. 327. 2External debt37. 528. 122. 527. 225. 725. 824. 423. 522. 621. 620. 8(annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)Money and creditCredit to the private sector (commercial banks)26. 323. 319. 216. 815. 317. 217. 517. 717. 219. 619. 6Broad money (M2+)31. 921. 916. 512. 811. 313. 213. 513. 713. 216. 716. 7Velocity (GDP/M2+, end of period)3. 63. 53. 73. 53. 73. 53. 73. 73. 73. 63. 5Base money47. 88. 612. 55. 07. 06. 614. 615. 415. 010. 69. 6Policy rate (in percent, end of period)27. 021. 018. 0……………………(US$ million, unless otherwise indicated)External sectorCurrent account balance (percent of GDP)1. 84. 57. 93. 27. 02. 75. 95. 24. 94. 02. 9BOP financing gap 211,6918,6598,6193,3103,663000000IMF1,320720733360360000000World Bank3904213791380000000AfDB0443300000000Debt restructuring-related flows 211,5307,4747,4742,8123,303000000Gross international reserves (program) 36,5188,62511,9069,10114,0709,81416,28018,84621,62423,39924,927in months of prospective imports2. 43. 34. 03. 44. 53. 55. 05. 56. 06. 16. 1Memorandum items:Nominal GDP (millions of GHc)1,182,7991,414,4801,434,1151,595,8691,595,8691,806,4231,810,9942,058,8162,330,6232,647,9063,008,450Population Growth Rate (percentage) 41. 91. 81. 81. 81. 81. 81. 81. 71. 71. 71. 7Sources: Ghanaian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections. 1 Fifth review interest expenditure projections assume full debt restructuring. 2 Additional financing needed to gradually bring reserves to at least 3 months of imports by 2026. The large 2024-2026 financing gaps result from debt restructuring accounting, with both debt deferral and the nominal value of the debt exchanges included here. 3 Excludes oil funds, encumbered assets, and pledged assets. 4 United Nations, World Population Prospects 2022[1]Under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on thewww. imf. org/ghanapage. [2]Under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on thewww. imf. org/ghanapage. [3]At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here:http://www. IMF. org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers. htm.