Migrant influx from Morocco threatens Europe with a new systemic crisis | News. az
Editor’s note: Alexander Rahr is a German political scientist and chairman of the Eurasian Society in Berlin. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the. . .
Editor’s note: Alexander Rahr is a German political scientist and chairman of the Eurasian Society in Berlin. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of News. Az. The mass crossing of migrants from Morocco into Spanish territory could mark the beginning of a new large-scale migration crisis in Europe, comparable to the events of 2015. In some respects, the situation in 2015 was even more severe. Migrants broke through border barriers and travelled through the Balkans towards Germany. At the time, Chancellor Angela Merkel, displaying political naivety or a serious misjudgement of the situation, declared that Germany should accept them and expected other European Union countries to show solidarity by sharing the migration burden. That solidarity never materialised. Most of the migrants remained in Germany, while many other EU member states refused to accept significant numbers of new arrivals. Spainis now likely to make a similar appeal. Madrid will insist that all EU countries demonstrate solidarity, accept a share of the migrant population, and help shoulder the associated financial and social costs. AP PHOTO/ANTONIO SEMPEREHowever, virtually no European country is prepared to do so. The political, economic and social conditions that existed in 2015 no longer exist. Even Germany, which became the principal destination for migrants during the previous crisis, no longer has the same capacity to accommodate and support another large influx. Spain is unlikely to be excluded from theSchengenArea. Nevertheless, the European Union will be forced to choose between two highly controversial options: returning the migrants to Morocco through police, administrative and financial measures, or distributing them among EU member states. Both scenarios carry serious risks. Attempts to return migrants could trigger a diplomatic confrontation between Spain and Morocco and provoke criticism from European human rights organisations. Distributing them across Europe, meanwhile, would face strong opposition from national governments and increasingly frustrated populations. Europe is approaching a very serious crisis. In the longer term,Spaincould even face the risk of losing effective control over its North African territories. It cannot be ruled out that migration pressure serves the strategic interests of the Moroccan authorities, who have repeatedly criticised Europe over its colonial and neo-colonial legacy. Themigration crisismay also cease to be confined to Spain's North African territories. Should the situation deteriorate further, groups of migrants could attempt to use or seize ferries in order to reach mainland Spain directly. Mass migration from the Global South to the North is no longer a distant prospect. Europe may soon face migration pressure on a scale that its political institutions, border systems and welfare structures are not prepared to manage. The consequences will be felt far beyond Spain. Abdel Majid BZIOUAT / AFP via Getty ImagesIn Germany, another migration crisis would almost certainly strengthen the Alternative for Germany and other political forces demanding stricter border controls and fundamental changes to asylum policy. The issue could become decisive in the next state elections in eastern Germany, where support for the Alternative for Germany is already particularly strong. A major electoral victory for the party would create a profound political crisis because the other mainstream parties continue to reject cooperation with it. Germany's deteriorating socio-economic situation will further intensify public anger. Social budgets are under increasing strain. Industrial plants are closing, unemployment is rising, and pressure on pensions and welfare spending is mounting. Under such conditions, more citizens will question why public funds are being directed towards the long-term support of migrants instead of protecting domestic jobs, pensions and social security. More than two million people have arrived in Germany since the migration crisis began in 2015, although the actual number may be higher. Only a limited proportion have successfully integrated into the labour market, while many continue to depend heavily on state welfare. This creates not only an economic burden but also a growing political problem. When citizens are told that social spending must be reduced while significant resources continue to be allocated to migrants, trust in established political parties and institutions inevitably declines. A new migration crisis could therefore deepen divisions within the European Union, strengthen right-wing political forces, and place additional pressure on already strained welfare systems. Europe once again faces a choice for which it is poorly prepared: either defend its external borders more robustly or accept another major wave of migration and deal with its profound social and political consequences. (If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at[email protected]). News. Az