NATO Summit Ankara: Trump Arrives in Turkiye for a NATO Summit That Could Redraw Who Defends Europe
US President Trump arrived in Ankara for a pivotal NATO summit centred on forcing European allies to shoulder far more of their own defence burden as the Pentagon signals a gradual US troop drawdown from the continent. With Ukraine pressing for scarce Patriot interceptors and the alliance's agenda expanding into the Middle East, analysts say the summit won't produce dramatic breakthroughs but will formalise a long-anticipated rebalancing of NATO's transatlantic power structure.
US President Donald Trump departed for Ankara on Monday to join NATO leaders at what officials and analysts describe as one of the alliance’s most consequential summits in years, not because dramatic breakthroughs are expected, but because the two-day gathering may determine what the transatlantic alliance looks like after decades of overwhelming American military leadership. The July 7-8 summit unfolds as Washington openly prepares European allies for a gradual shift in U. S. military posture on the continent, presses members to sharply increase defence spending, and signals that Europe’s security must increasingly become Europe’s own responsibility. Trump arrives carrying familiar grievances that many allies continue benefiting from American protection without paying their fair share, even as a far deeper debate unfolds behind the scenes over how to rebalance the alliance without weakening its deterrence against Russia. You Might Be Interested InPentagon Prepares Allies for a Smaller American FootprintSenior US officials confirmed ahead of the summit that an ongoing Pentagon force posture review in Europe could lead to reductions in American troop levels across the continent. One senior official framed the review as an expected step rather than a surprise, noting the process may well lead Washington to adjust its posture as it shifts burden toward Europe. A second senior official told RFE/RL the review reflects broader global demands on US forces and insisted any troop changes would be driven by strategy rather than politics. A Summit Built Around Scorecards, Not SpeechesFor the Trump administration, Ankara is less about declarations than results. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told reporters ahead of the summit that Washington expects every ally to show real upward momentum toward fairer burden sharing, singling out Poland, Germany and the Nordic and Baltic states as examples moving in the right direction. Trump himself was far blunter in a White House meeting last week with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, expressing sharp disappointment with Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, and singling out Spain by name, calling it “a horror show” and saying flatly, “Spain is terrible. ”Although the United States remains NATO’s largest contributor in absolute dollar terms, several allies, including Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Norway, now devote a larger share of their economic output to defence than Washington does. Following commitments made at last year’s summit in The Hague, member states are expected to present roadmaps in Ankara showing how they intend to reach defence spending equal to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035. Matthew Kroenig, a former Pentagon special adviser for defence strategy, described the gathering as effectively a “scorecard summit,” saying the central question is whether Europeans are genuinely stepping up for the burden shift Washington has in mind. Kroenig added that US officials remain concerned some allies still lack credible plans to hit their targets, and have questioned whether European industrial initiatives might duplicate capability already available from American manufacturers rather than strengthening the alliance efficiently. The Emergence of ‘NATO 3. 0’Beyond budget lines, the summit reflects a broader strategic transformation that many analysts believe Washington is engineering deliberately rather than allowing to unfold by accident. Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, described the moment as a necessary rebalancing rather than a crisis, arguing the US is reallocating assets and adjusting priorities as Europe takes on more. Pressed on whether the alliance itself is at risk, Kupchan said he did not think the transatlantic alliance is coming to an end, though he separately cautioned that Trump’s approach has strained one of NATO’s most valuable assets: the trust between its members. Liana Fix, also a senior fellow at CFR, said Europe is now operating in two parallel realities, publicly emphasising stronger burden sharing while privately drawing up contingency plans in case Washington scales back further. She warned that the Americans are withdrawing faster than the Europeans can fill the resulting gaps, particularly in air defence, strategic logistics and missile defence, and argued that as US involvement recedes, Ukraine itself is increasingly becoming a security guarantor for the rest of Europe. Ukraine Wants Weapons, Not WordsUkraine arrives in Ankara under intensifying Russian missile attacks and a worsening shortage of advanced air-defence interceptors, with President Volodymyr Zelensky expected to meet Trump on the summit’s sidelines to press once more for additional Patriot systems following another deadly strike on Kyiv. Tyson Barker, a former US deputy special envoy for Ukraine’s economic recovery, said success for Kyiv at this summit will be measured in weapons, not statements, calling any new air-defence commitment a huge and badly needed step forward. He argued that debates over Ukraine’s long-term NATO membership are largely beside the point right now, saying what matters immediately is greater weapons commitments and deeper defence-industrial cooperation, and suggested Ankara could help cement an emerging defence partnership between Turkey and Ukraine around the Black Sea. Kroenig noted that the Trump administration maintains it is still supporting Kyiv through intelligence sharing, expanded authorisation for strikes inside Russian territory, and facilitating European purchases of American-made weapons, but acknowledged that Patriot interceptors remain one of the most scarce military resources in the world, saying he was unsure what more the United States could realistically supply. Middle East Tensions Widen NATO’s AgendaWhile Ukraine dominates the summit’s security discussions, Ankara is also expected to highlight NATO’s growing attention to the Middle East. Senior administration officials said Trump wants allies to take on greater responsibility for protecting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following recent regional instability, though Barker cautioned that European governments have signalled willingness to contribute to maritime security only once a durable ceasefire takes hold. The choice of Ankara as host also underscores Turkey’s expanding geopolitical weight. Trump is expected to hold separate bilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zelensky and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, reflecting renewed American diplomatic engagement across the region after months of heightened tensions. Stephen Sestanovich, a senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at CFR, suggested the summit also signals Moscow’s fading regional influence, saying that from Russia’s vantage point, the gathering represents American outreach and a strengthening of relations with Turkey and Syria. A Transition Already UnderwayDespite the friction on display, most analysts agree Ankara is unlikely to produce either a dramatic rupture or a sweeping breakthrough. Instead, the summit appears set to formalise a transition that is already well underway, whether described as burden shifting, “NATO 3. 0” or strategic rebalancing, as Washington moves to place primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence onto European capitals while preserving the alliance’s core political and nuclear architecture. The open question hanging over Ankara is not whether Europe will spend more, but whether that shift can happen without opening dangerous gaps in deterrence or eroding the trust that has bound the alliance together for more than seven decades.