Nigeria to Account for More Than 60% of West Africa's Unemployed in 2026 (EBID)
Nigeria is projected to account for about 62% of West Africa's unemployed population in 2026, with 3. 72 million people out of work, according to the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID). EBID attributes the outlook to Nigeria's large population, rapid labor force growth and persistent challenges in creating enough. . .
Nigeria is projected to account for about 62% of West Africa's unemployed population in 2026, with 3. 72 million people out of work, according to the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID). EBID attributes the outlook to Nigeria's large population, rapid labor force growth and persistent challenges in creating enough formal jobs. West Africa's unemployed population is expected to increase to 6 million in 2026 from 5. 6 million in 2025, although labor productivity is forecast to improve. Nigeria will account for about 62% of West Africa's unemployed population in 2026, according to the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) in its annualreport,Distant Turbulence, Familiar Shocks. EBID projects that Nigeria will have 3. 72 million unemployed people in 2026, up from 3. 57 million in 2025. Under the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition, an unemployed person is someone who had no job during the reference week, was available to start work immediately and actively sought employment. EBID said Nigeria's share of regional unemployment primarily reflects the country's demographic weight. With a population exceeding 230 million, Nigeria faces mounting pressure to generate enough jobs for its rapidly expanding labor force. A labor market under pressure despite reformsBeyond demographic factors, Nigeria continues to face a persistent mismatch between the skills of young graduates and employers' labor market needs. According to the ILO, the country's youth unemployment rate stood at 5. 5% in 2024, compared with an official overall unemployment rate of 3. 5%. Nigeria's labor market also remains heavily dominated by the informal sector, which accounts for nearly 93% of total employment, limiting access to stable and higher-quality jobs for much of the workforce. In response, the federal government has launched several initiatives aimed at improving youth employability. In January 2026, authorities established the WorldSkills Nigeria National Team Committee to align vocational training programs with international standards and strengthen young people's technical skills. Earlier, in October 2025, the government launched the second phase of the Nigeria Jubilee Fellows Programme (NJFP 2. 0) with $220 million in funding. The program aims to improve graduate employment through internships, mentoring and job opportunities in priority sectors, including agriculture, renewable energy, digital technology, manufacturing and the creative industries. West African unemployment expected to riseAt the regional level, EBID expects labor market conditions to deteriorate further as labor force growth continues to outpace job creation. The number of unemployed people in West Africa is projected to rise to 6 million in 2026 from 5. 6 million in 2025 before increasing to 6. 3 million in 2027. The projected increase extends a trend that began in 2024, when the region recorded 5. 58 million unemployed people. Within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), unemployment is forecast to reach 5. 3 million people in 2026 and 5. 6 million in 2027. Within the West African Monetary Zone Plus (WAMZ+), which includes Cabo Verde, the number of unemployed people is expected to increase to 4. 6 million in 2026 and 4. 9 million in 2027. By contrast, EBID expects unemployment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) to remain broadly stable at around 1. 4 million people in 2027. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is also expected to maintain unemployment at approximately 700,000 people. At the same time, EBID forecasts labor productivity to improve across almost all regional groupings. Labor productivity in West Africa is expected to grow by 1. 9% in 2026 before easing slightly to 1. 8% in 2027. Those figures would represent an acceleration from 1. 6% growth in 2025, following 1. 7% growth in 2024. This article was initially published in French by Charlène N'dimonAdapted in English by Ange J. A de Berry Quenum