Poll: Gov. Sanders holds lead over two opponents - Talk Business & Politics
Incumbent Republican Gov. Sarah Sanders is leading her two general election opponents despite the headwinds of President Trump’s political woes in Arkansas. A new statewide survey of 1,217 likely voters. . .
Incumbent Republican Gov. Sarah Sanders is leading her two general election opponents despite the headwinds ofPresident Trump’s political woes in Arkansas. A new statewide survey of 1,217 likely voters shows Sanders with 45% support compared to Democrat Sen. Fred Love’s 40% and Libertarian Colt Shelby’s 7%. Undecided voters stand at 8% in the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll, which was conducted Aug. 11-12, 2026. Respondents were asked:Q: If the race for Governor were being held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?7% – Colt Shelby (Libertarian)45% – Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican)40% – State Senator Fredrick Love (Democrat)8% – UndecidedIn this same survey, President Trump had a 53% overall disapproval rating among voters. “While I’m sure she’d like to see a bigger lead, Gov. Sanders does have an advantage over both of her opponents heading into the November election,” said Roby Brock, Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief. “Sanders has a lead despite President Trump’s drag on GOP candidates with Independent voters. She is also doing better in some key demos than other Republicans on the ticket this year. ”“I emphasize this is a baseline poll that provides a snapshot of where the race is today. As money is spent, campaigning from all candidates ramps up, and more voters pay attention to this race, the numbers will change,” added Brock. ANALYSISTalk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of its polls. Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) currently leads the three-way race for governor by five percentage points in this survey, with State Senator Fred Love (D) at 40%. Libertarian candidate Colt Shelby, who sits in distant third at 7%, doesn’t look like the surprise spoiler that some have predicted. Shelby is polling at roughly double what a typical Libertarian might receive, but as of today he is not a factor in this race. Along party lines, Republicans are solidly with Sanders (85%), while Democrats are largely sticking with Love (87%). Shelby is pulling equally from both major parties – 6% from Democrats and 6% of Republicans. This survey shows a notable shift in Independent preference, which is largely being driven by disapproval with President Trump. In recent political history, Independents have reliably leaned Republican, whereas in this race, more than half of Independents preferred Love (D). Looking at the demographic makeup of the Governor’s support, the fundamentals are strong for Sanders. She leads with the largest two age groups, which are reliably high propensity subgroups – +10% with 45-64 year olds and +30% with 65+. These two groups also make up a combined 64% of voters undecided in the governor’s race, giving her the opportunity to grow that advantage. Sanders is +9% with men, and unlike Republicans in some of the other races tested, she is competitive with women (tied at 43%), a key differentiator for her in this race. With millions at her disposal, Governor Sanders has the clear advantage in this race to build on these numbers over the coming months to secure her re-election. Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, is active in Democratic Party politics and also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders has been thought to be in a dominant position going into the general election campaign. She certainly remains in a solid spot for reelection, particularly as her campaign has yet to spend millions of dollars on hold in her campaign account, but the race is closer than expected between the incumbent and state Senator Fred Love of Little Rock, the Democrat. It was always clear that an anti-Sanders vote had emerged because of policy decisions across her first term, but that vote has not split as much as might have been expected between Love and Libertarian nominee Colt Shelby. The result is a much closer race for first place. The Governor’s relative standing is clearly impacted by the negative environment for Republicans this cycle, driven by attitudes towards the man for whom she served as chief spokesperson in her first term. However, she is able to rise above that for several reasons led by the lack of information voters have about the outfunded Democrat outside his home base of Pulaski County. The first female governor of Arkansas also performs quite ably, for a Republican, among women voters (she is even with them, while leading among men) and among voters of color (she gains 28% of the vote among Black voters). Otherwise, Sanders’ patterns of support are very much in synch with the Trump coalition in the state, overperforming with voters over 65, men, white Arkansans, and those lacking a college degree. Conversely, Love performs strongly with those under 65, voters of color, college graduates, and political independents. A big story in the survey is the showing Colt Shelby, who has received a fair amount of attention among some politicos and those who write about politics in the state. At 7 percent, Shelby is certainly overperforming most Libertarians in Arkansas political history and those on the ballot this cycle. However, his performance at this stage is not large enough to truly split the votes of those opposed to Sanders, leaving Love as a much closer competitor to Sanders. Shelby is overperforming with independents, college graduates, men, and those under 65. He also runs best among those that “somewhat” support and “somewhat” oppose Trump’s performance rather than those more emphatic about the President. Obviously, this is a baseline survey just at the point when rank-and-file voters will begin paying attention to politics, or, more accurately, “be forced” to begin paying attention because of dozens of advertisements in varied formats. On that front, Governor Sanders has a monster advantage for the stretch run of the campaign. However, at this moment we seem to have a closer race for Governor than most would expect, partly driven by Trump’s challenges in the state. METHODOLOGYThe survey of 1,217 likely Arkansas voters was conducted Aug. 11-12, 2026 and has a margin of error of +/- 4. 7%. Click here to see a breakdown of poll demographics. Responses were collected via SMS by phone. The poll is slightly weighted to account for key demographics including ethnicity, education, gender, and geography. All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this specific story is also required for any digital or online usage by other media outlets. For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at[email protected]. Related