Q&A: What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ for renewables mean for climate change? - Carbon Brief
China has released its “15th five-year plan for the development of renewable energy”, outlining key targets and policies for the sector in 2026-2030. A key focus of the plan is boosting renewable generation. . .
China has released its “15th five-year plan for the development of renewable energy”, outlining key targets and policies for the sector in 2026-2030. A key focus of the plan is boosting renewable generation and consumption as a share of China’s overall energy mix. It calls for continued capacity additions of wind and solar – albeit atlower levelsthan previous years – as well as hydropower, biomass and other clean-energy sources. Specifically, China will aim to install 3,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewables capacity by 2030, 2,800GW will be wind and solar. The country had previously pledged to install 1,200GW of wind and solar by 2030, a goal that Chinametsix years early. Another major theme is the provision of wind and solar supply that is “dependable” and “grid-friendly”. Setting a target for “dependable output” from wind and solar could help to entrench their role as a provider of “energy security”, according to analysts. The government also aims to boost renewables consumption by developing non-power uses of renewable energy, in sectors such as steel and chemicals. Below, Carbon Brief examines the key targets and policies outlined in the five-year plan and what they mean for China’s energy transition. Why are China’s five-year plans important?What overarching renewables targets are in the plan?Why does the plan focus on ‘firm capacity’ for renewables?What does the plan say about ‘distributed’ energy?What does the plan say about non-electricity use of renewables?What does the plan say about China’s cleantech dominance?Article ContentsExpandmenuWhy are China’s five-year plans important?Five-year plansare key to China’s political system. An overarching plan, covering all socioeconomic issues of importance to policy leaders, is published at the beginning of each five-year cycle. The plan for the 15th five-year period (2026-2030) waspublishedin March 2026. It includes what the government considers to be the most important targets and policy signals for climate and energy. For example, binding targets for carbon intensity, the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption and total energy production capacity. Following this overarching document, five-year plans focused on specific sectors or themes are then published over the course of the five-year plan period. This year, the government has already published several five-year plans related to energy and climate change. Onecovers the development of the “new-type” energy sector more broadly. Anotherwraps climate goals together with other environmental targets under the “Beautiful China” programme. By contrast, the renewables five-year plan focuses specifically on the development of hydropower, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and wave energy. It waspublishedin late July by theNational Development and Reform Commission(NDRC), the country’s top economic planning agency, and theNational Energy Administration(NEA). It covers topics including capacity and generation targets, as well as efforts to increase integration and reliability of wind and solar. It also has policies to encourage “non-power use” of renewable energy and ways to strengthen innovation of clean-energy technologies. What overarching renewables targets are in the plan?China will aim to install 3,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewables capacity by 2030, according to the five-year plan. Of this, 2,800GW will be wind and solar – a pledgereiteratedfrom China’s action plan for peaking carbon emissions, which was released earlier this month. The goalmore than doublesa previous 2030 target for wind and solar to reach 1,200GW, which China met six years early. As of June 2026, the country hasinstalledjust under 2,000GW of wind and solar capacity, as well as 454GW of hydropower. Biomass, geothermal and wave energy hold very small shares of the overall energy mix. As such, China would need to build 160GW of wind and solar each year – and just under 220GW of renewable capacity in total – to meet the targets. The countryinstalled277GW of new solar alone in 2024 – and 315GW in 2025. China’s total installed capacity of renewable energy from 2016-2025, and its target for 2030. Source: National Energy Administration, Carbon Brief. A key part of meeting the targets will be the development oflarge-scale clean-energy basesin China’s northern regions. These will generate power to be exported elsewhere via ultra-high voltage lines. The plan also encourages greater “local consumption” and installations of distributed energy (see below). The plan says that further research will be directed at increasing the renewable share of electricity generated by these large-scale energy bases to 100%. A recent report by the thinktankGlobal Energy Monitor(GEM) finds that output from these bases “continues to be paired with coal-fired generation in the name of balancing and system flexibility”. It says that currently, coal generates 42% of the power transmitted to the rest of the country from these bases. China will also add more hydropower, says the plan, with capacity rising from 448GW in 2025 to 570GW in 2030. Some 160GW of this will be pumped-storage hydropower. Meanwhile, the plan sets a target for renewable power generation to reach 6,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), 4,000TWh of which would come from wind and solar. This would be a 50% increase in five years as renewables generated just under 4,000TWh of electricity in 2025, according to theNational Energy Administration. By 2030, the plan says that total consumption of renewable energy will stand at 1. 8bn tonnes of coal equivalent (Gtce). This would be up from 1. 2Gtce in 2025, which represented about one-fifth of China’stotal energy consumptionof6. 2Gtcethat year. The renewable targets in the plan are lower than those suggested in a recentstudyby high-profile Chinese scholars. The study, from the department of energy and power engineering and the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development atTsinghua Universityin Beijing, assessed the “likelihood of China attaining its carbon peak” under different pathways. It found that, in order to meet its climate commitments, China would need to either install more than 4,000GW of “non-fossil energy capacity” before 2030, or to “maintain a total energy consumption” below 6. 5Gtce. The table below outlines some of the key renewables targets for 2030, as specified in the plan. Key targets for 2030, adapted from 15th five-year plan for renewable energyType20252030Percentage changeRenewable energy use1. 2Gtce1. 8Gtce53%Total renewables capacity2,340GW3,500GW50%Wind and solar capacity1,840GWMore than 2,800GW52%Of which: Solar thermal1. 8GW15GW733%Hydro capacity450GW570GW27%Of which: Pumped storage hydropower66GW160GW142%Wave energy–0. 4GW–Renewable generation4,000TWh6,000TWh50%Of which: Wind and solar2,300TWh4,000TWh74%Non-electricity use60Mtce150Mtce150%Renewable hydrogen0. 25Mt2Mt700%Why does the plan focus on ‘firm capacity’ for renewables?As well as increasing the overall size of China’s renewable power supply, the country must also maintain an “uninterrupted and reliable power supply”, officials from the NDRC and NEA told state news agencyXinhuain coverage of the new plan. To support this goal, the plan says that the development of renewables will “enter a new stage”. This will mean that “improving quality and serving as a reliable alternative” to fossil fuels will be as important as “expanding scale”. The plan, therefore, proposes targets for the “firm capacity” from wind and solar (置信出力). This is the amount plants or grids can be relied on to produce during critical supply periods, in conjunction with on-site storage. The target for wind is a firm capacity of at least 11% of total installed capacity by 2030, while the equivalent goal for solar is 6%. Wind and solar will also be expected to supply more than 20% of total demand in peak periods during the summer and winter evenings, says the plan. It expects “reliable peak-shaving capacity from renewable sources” to reach more than 300GW. The new targets are a “positive move”, says Yao Zhe, global policy advisor atGreenpeace East Asia, as it “only applies during peak load and critical supply periods, when coal power is typically used to stabilise the power supply”. She adds that this could, theoretically, “prevent the construction of new coal-fired power projects that are proposed and approved for the reason of meeting peak demand”. The new metrics mark a change in focus, saysLyu Wenbin, director general of theEnergy Research Institute– a state thinktank under the NDRC – in an “explanatory reading” posted onBJX News. He says it “marks a shift in renewable energy development from the mere pursuit of installed capacity to…also taking into account system support capabilities”. The plan pledges to “accelerate the construction of grid-friendly wind and solar power stations”. It says this will enhance “reliable peak-load generation” and strengthen renewables’ ability to ensure “safe and stable operation” of the grid. It says this will particularly be a focus in the energy-hungry east, central and south areas of China. It sets out a slightly different focus for areas that already have a high share of renewables in their power mix, such as north-west China. Here, the aim will be to develop wind and solar parks that are “capable of providing voltage, frequency and inertia support”. “This is a real challenge”, saysJames Norman, research analyst atGEM. He says these challenges are particularly acute in some circumstances:“[For example], when the share of wind and solar is very high, relatively few synchronous generators (like coal) are online or large volumes of electricity are being transferred through high voltage DC lines. ”The plan mentions many technological solutions to address the problem, he tells Carbon Brief. However, he adds, there are no quantitative details for the issue. For example, he notes there is no target for “how many gigawatts of wind and solar must gain grid-forming capability”. This is in contrast to the goals for overall renewables capacity or generation. Norman was a co-author on the recentGEMreport, which identified further barriers to renewable uptake. It said these include transmission bottlenecks, alongside systemic features such as dispatching and power-contract mechanisms. As a result, said the report, renewable power – especially solar – is increasingly being “curtailed”, particularly in north-western and northern provinces. Yao also notes that the plan does not “spell out specific measures to address systemic constraints” around the electricity grid and the role of coal in the power sector. “I interpret this as evidence that the vested interests are still strong in the policy debate,” she adds. What does the plan say about ‘distributed’ energy?Alongside gigawatt-scale clean-energy megabases, China also aims to expand construction of “distributed” energy. This means smaller-scale installations, such as rooftop solar. More than 300GW of “distributed new energy” is to be added over 2026-30, some 60GW per year. The plan aims for distributed new energy to be adopted in sectors such as industry, transport, buildings and agriculture. Applications include the use of distributed solar and wind in industrial parks, coal mines and oilfields, as well as encouraging residents to install solar panels on buildings and developing rural clean-energy grids. In some regions, distributed solar and wind is “likely to meet a large proportion of local demand”, saysProf Pan Jiahuaat theHong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou). He tells Carbon Brief that micro- and mini-grids using such resources will be particularly important in central and coastal China. The 60GW annual target for new distributed energy is not “overly ambitious”, saysIsadora Wang, head of China at the thinktankTransition Asia. She tells Carbon Brief that distributed solar additions, alone, exceeded 100GW in both 2024 and 2025. Cosimo Ries, analyst at the consultancyTrivium China, agrees that the target is reachable. The biggest question mark, he tells Carbon Brief, is whether it will continue to make sense for industry and utilities to build distributed power at the volumes seen during the 14th five-year plan period. He adds that market conditions for distributed solar have deteriorated sharply over the past two years. He says a range of factors have hit investor confidence:“[Distributed solar faces] growing exposure to market trading, worsening returns in spot markets, growing risks of curtailment and new policies limiting or forbidding the selling of power back to the grid. ”What does the plan say about non-electricity use of renewables?The plan also sets goals for renewable energy’s role in “non-electricity use”. Thismeansusing renewable energy for purposes other than generating electricity, through converting it to other forms, such as heat or mechanical energy. The government is aiming for non-power use to nearly triple from 60m tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2025 to 150Mtce in 2030. Ries tells Carbon Brief that he thinks this target is “one of the main highlights” of the plan. However, he notes that limited available data means it is hard to assess the level of its ambition. He adds that, given the relative conservatism of China’s other recent clean-energy targets, this one may also be met relatively easily. Key applications for non-power use of renewables include “green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol”, says the plan. It also points to using wind and solar for heat, as well as to biomass and geothermal for heating and cooling. Green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol are the “centrepiece” of the non-power push, according to state-owned newspaperEconomic Information Daily. Forhydrogenalone, China plans to scale up renewable hydrogen production to 2m tonnes in 2030, up from250,000 tonnesin 2025. Today, non-power use of renewables accounts for only around 1% of China’s total energy consumption, NEA and NDRC officials said in aQ&A. They added that there is “considerable room for growth” in sectors such as industry, transport and buildings. Potential new applications include the use of wind and solar for heat. This could see the use of centralised wind and solar heating stations in the chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, papermaking and food sectors. New projects in the steel and cement sectors should use locally-generated wind and solar to power electric-arc furnaces and kilns, adds the plan. Wang tells Carbon Brief that she believes the naming of individual sectors is a “clear indication” that they will be included in China’srenewable consumption quotas. These already cover aluminium and other heavy industry sectors. She adds that power and heat demand from the named sectors may help absorb distributed renewable energy. It will also serve as a testing ground for matching demand with supply through increased grid flexibility and power price reforms. To Ries, the growing focus on non-power use signals that China’s decarbonisation efforts are “now entering deeper waters”. That means regulators are turning from easier-to-abate sectors, such as aluminium, to more challenging industries, such assteel. The plan could create a “second growth curve” for the new-energy industry, says He Zhao, in a commentary forChina Power News Net. He, the vice-president of theChina Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute(EPPEI). says this might begin with non-power use, before shifting to fuel, feedstock and heat substitution. What does the plan say about China’s cleantech dominance?The next five years is a prime opportunity for China to “consolidate our leading position across the entire industrial chain” for clean-energy technologies, says the plan. It adds that the government will “strengthen technological innovation” and accelerate the roll-out of new applications ofartificial intelligencein China’s renewable-energy system. A particular focus for new R&D will be “cutting-edge, original and disruptive technologies”. It also points to technologies that “enhance the reliability of renewable energy” as a substitute for fossil fuels. The plan names technologies for further development. For wind power, these include “reliable and low-cost” blades, ultra-tall towers and new types of floating platforms. It also mentions the development of “high-altitude wind power”. For solar, it points to the development of perovskite and other “high efficiency” solar cells, as well as space-solar technologies. The plan also pledges to develop apower marketthat supports the “full entry” of renewable-energy companies. It underscores that companies should plan for an increasingly market-based and competitive environment. Meanwhile, the government will also deepen cooperation with other countries on clean energy and “advance” global climate cooperation, it says. A priority will be “strengthening” international coordination on investment and development in “green energy projects”. Another is “actively promoting the free circulation of China’s high-quality green technologies and products in global markets”. Chinese exports of clean-energy technologies have beensurging, especially since the closure of the strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Chinese investment in clean-energy projects inBelt and Road Initiativemember statestotalled$20bn in the first half of 2026. This is also driven by the crisis. The US, EU and others have launched tariffs and pricing mechanisms to curb imports of Chinese cleantech. This has contributed topushbackfrom China, against what it and others refer to as “unilateral trade measures”. China is transitioning from a “major energy nation” (能源大国) to an “energy powerhouse” (能源强国), writes the Energy Research Institute’s Lyu in hisexplanatory reading. He says this will enable China to increasingly shift to building “systemic” advantages in developing clean-energy technologies. He continues that, from 2026-2030, China will “move to the very forefront of the global stage” on clean energy, “venturing into uncharted territory”. This will create both “major new challenges and significant opportunities” for the country, he adds.