Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?
China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change. The 15th five-year plan for a national response to… The post Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?
China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change. The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period. These include five-year plans for “building aBeautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developingrenewable energy. There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as forpeaking carbon emissions. China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060. The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies. Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets. Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030. What does the climate plan cover?TheMinistry of Ecology and Environment(MEE) released theplanin late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include theNational Development and Reform Commission(NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and theNational Energy Administration. The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change. For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEEQ&A. They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030. China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRCpublisheda plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period. Qin Yan, principal analyst atClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”. She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’sParis Agreementclimate pledges for2030and2035. In its 2030 pledge, Chinaaimedto peak emissions “before 2030” and reducecarbon intensity– its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels. Last year, president Xi Jinping personallyannouncedChina’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”. The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy,accordingto researchers atCIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with theIndustrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government. Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity. Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans. These include:Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five yearsReducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%Substituting fossil fuels with renewablesStrengthening climate adaptationSupporting the “free flow” of cleantechWhat does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear. The target previously appeared in theoverarching five-year plan, as well as theplan for building a “Beautiful China”. The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, saysChen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at theInstitute for Global Decarbonization Progress(iGDP). She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects. She points to anMEE explanatory notefor a draft methodology under theChina Certified Emission Reduction(CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects usingventilation air methaneandcoal-mine methanewithconcentrations below 8%alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030. The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4. 5MtCO2e”. In addition, Chen says, measures targetingindustrial nitrous oxide(N2O) andhydrofluorocarbons(HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target. According toiGDP analysisof biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below. iGDP analysis of China’s firstBiennial Transparency Reportand fourthBiennial Update Report. China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions. The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment. For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands. What does the plan say about global climate governance?One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance. By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area. It says China’s climate action could also feed into theGlobal Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system. China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds. Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at theUniversity of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes onLinkedInthat the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action. Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets. The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting theChina Carbon Market Conference. Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of theopen coalition on compliance carbon marketswith the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September. Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses. The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shapeglobal rulesunder theArticle 6framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds. The postQ&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?appeared first onCarbon Brief.