South Africa Lowers 2026 Citrus Export Forecast After Flooding Disrupts Harvest
South Africa's Citrus Growers' Association (CGA) lowered its 2026 export forecast to 205. 3 million cartons from 209. 4 million after flooding disrupted production and logistics. Despite the downgrade, exports would still reach a record level, exceeding the 203. 4 million cartons shipped in 2025, when South Africa overtook Spain as the world's. . .
South Africa's Citrus Growers' Association (CGA) lowered its 2026 export forecast to 205. 3 million cartons from 209. 4 million after flooding disrupted production and logistics. Despite the downgrade, exports would still reach a record level, exceeding the 203. 4 million cartons shipped in 2025, when South Africa overtook Spain as the world's largest citrus exporter. The industry continues to face rising shipping costs, Middle East trade disruptions and stricter phytosanitary requirements in its key European markets. South Africa's Citrus Growers' Association (CGA) has lowered its 2026 citrus export forecast to 205. 3 million cartons (15 kilograms per carton), reflecting mounting production and logistics challenges. The revised estimate falls below the previous projection of 209. 4 million cartons. However, it would still surpass the 203. 4 million cartons exported in 2025, setting another annual record after South Africa overtook Spain as the world's largest citrus exporter last year. According to details reported by Reuters, severe flooding in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape provinces drove the downward revision. Together, the two regions account for nearly 45% of the country's citrus production. The flooding disrupted harvesting, reduced output and hampered logistics throughout the export campaign. Meanwhile, South Africa's citrus industry continues to face difficult trading conditions in several export markets. The Middle East, which absorbs about 20% of South African citrus exports, has become increasingly challenging because the regional conflict has disrupted shipping routes and extended delivery times. The CGA warned about these risks in late March. "The Middle East has long been an important market for our citrus. Disruptions to both demand and transport, together with the international knock-on effects of shipping delays, create risks that everyone should be aware of. Shipping tariffs have also increased sharply. At the same time, some Gulf markets continue to maintain retail price caps on citrus, limiting exporters' ability to recover these higher logistics costs. "Industry Faces Mounting Regulatory PressureBeyond the Middle East, the industry must also address tightening phytosanitary requirements in Europe, its largest export market. The most significant issue concerns the planned regulatory alignment between the European Union and the United Kingdom. Since Brexit, the UK has offered South African exporters a more flexible regulatory framework than the EU. However, London and Brussels have worked since 2025 to harmonize regulations covering plants, animals, food and animal feed, with implementation expected from mid-2027. The South African citrus industry fears that this convergence will eliminate the UK's regulatory advantage and extend stricter EU standards to citrus exports destined for the British market. These concerns come as Pretoria continues to dispute several EU phytosanitary measures. Since 2022, the European Union has required cold treatment protocols to reduce the risk of false codling moth infestations. The rules require exporters to maintain very low temperatures over extended periods, forcing them to invest in additional cooling, monitoring and storage capacity. Pretoria also challenges EU regulations on citrus black spot, a fungal disease that has triggered stricter inspections, increased spraying requirements and created greater uncertainty for export shipments. This article was initially published in French by Espoir OlodoAdapted in English by Ange J. A de Berry Quenum