South Africa Targets China to Diversify Soybean Exports After Record Crop
South Africa expects a record soybean harvest of 3 million metric tons in 2026, creating a larger exportable surplus. The country plans to target China during the 2026/27 marketing season, supported by Beijing's duty-free access for African exports. South Africa must still secure Chinese sanitary approvals and compete with major. . .
South Africa expects a record soybean harvest of 3 million metric tons in 2026, creating a larger exportable surplus. The country plans to target China during the 2026/27 marketing season, supported by Beijing's duty-free access for African exports. South Africa must still secure Chinese sanitary approvals and compete with major global suppliers including Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Uruguay. South Africa could ship part of its soybean production surplus to China during the 2026/27 marketing season, according to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the South African Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz). Sihlobo outlined the outlook in a market forecast note published on July 29. The initiative reflects expectations that stronger domestic production will increase exportable volumes after local demand absorbs available supplies. According to the latest estimates from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), South Africa will harvest 3 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, up 7% from the previous season and the highest output ever recorded by the industry. Meanwhile, Grain SA, which represents the country's grain and oilseed producers, expects the sector to export 280,000 metric tons of soybeans during the 2026/27 season. The forecast represents a 14% increase from the 245,000 metric tons shipped in the previous marketing year. A Favorable Environment to Enter the Chinese MarketThe prospect of higher production has encouraged South Africa's soybean industry to seek new export markets. At the same time, China's preferential trade policy toward African products has increased the attractiveness of the Chinese market for exporters. Since May 1, 2026, China has granted duty-free access across 100% of tariff lines to the 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, including South Africa. South African soybean exporters could use that advantage to strengthen their presence in the Asian market. "In South Africa, we want to strengthen our access to the Chinese market for many agricultural products. The recently signed China-Africa Framework for Shared Prosperity, which reduces tariffs on goods to zero, offers us a tremendous opportunity to access the market for a wide range of agricultural products,"Sihlobo said. An Opportunity to Increase Export RevenueAccess to the Chinese market could help South Africa expand its export earnings and gain new market share. Data compiled by Trade Map show that South Africa exported nearly $100 million worth of soybeans annually on average between 2018 and 2025, with exports peaking at $389 million in 2022. However, Trade Map data show that China did not purchase South African soybeans during that period. Instead, neighboring Southern African countries, including Zimbabwe, Eswatini and Mozambique, accounted for the country's main export destinations. Although access to China would provide South African producers with a new commercial outlet, the country must demonstrate that it can supply consistent and competitive volumes against leading global exporters. In 2025, China imported nearly $50 billion worth of soybeans, mainly from Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Uruguay, according to Trade Map. Moreover, South Africa must secure Chinese sanitary approvals before it can expand soybean exports to the Chinese market. Stéphanas Assocle