Ten years on: what did Brexit actually cost the UK insurance industry? - EUROPE SAYS
Illustrative estimate · Bloom et al. (NBER WP 34459, 2025) × ONS Blue Book 2025, table 4. 4. 2The Brexit bill built slowly — and is still accumulatingAnnual drag on insurance and pensions output estimated at. . .
Illustrative estimate · Bloom et al. (NBER WP 34459, 2025) × ONS Blue Book 2025, table 4. 4. 2The Brexit bill built slowly — and is still accumulatingAnnual drag on insurance and pensions output estimated at £3–5bn by 2023, accumulating to approximately £17–29bn over the decade to 2025. Based on Bloom’s documented gradual build pattern applied to actual ONS GVA each yearAnnual drag by 2023£3–5bnCumulative by 2025£17–29bnGVA base used (2023)£44. 5bnLow–high range Central estimateCumulative cost central estimate: 2017 £0bn, 2018 £1bn, 2019 £2bn, 2020 £4bn, 2021 £6bn, 2022 £10bn, 2023 £14bn, 2024 £18bn, 2025 £22bn. Range: low £17bn to high £28bn by 2025. Methodology note: Annual drag estimated as 7% (low) to 12% (high) of insurance corporations and pension funds GVA (ONS table 4. 4. 2), scaled by a gradual build factor derived from Bloom et al. Figure 8 — approximately 15% of full effect in 2017, reaching 100% by 2023. This is illustrative arithmetic, not a peer-reviewed estimate. The range reflects data uncertainty: the ONS groups insurance with pension funds and pure insurance GVA cannot be isolated without further work. Source: Bloom, Bunn, Mizen, Smietanka and Thwaites, “The Economic Impact of Brexit,” NBER Working Paper 34459, November 2025; ONS Blue Book 2025. That’s the lost annual output from Brexit’s dampening effect on investment, employment and productivity in insurance and pensions specifically. Accumulated across the decade since 2016, accounting for the gradual build-up the Bloom paper documents, the cumulative figure is likely somewhere between £20bn and £40bn. Tags:brexitEconomyEconomy of EUEconomy of the EUEU economyEuropeInsurance