The Gathering Geo-Political Storm - What the U. S. Mid-term Elections Could Mean for Asia and Trade - National Press Foundation - EUROPE SAYS
Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Singapore, discussed how the fragmentation of global trade is reshaping Asia’s economic and geopolitical landscape. Unprecedented foreign affairs policies coming. . .
Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Singapore, discussed how the fragmentation of global trade is reshaping Asia’s economic and geopolitical landscape. Unprecedented foreign affairs policies coming out of the White House have led to a tumultuous last two years. Government and communications expertSteven Okunargues that the next two could be even more chaotic. At the 2026 International Trade Reporting Fellowship in Singapore, Okun analyzed how President Trump’s approach to governance, characterized by circumventing traditional checks and balances, has created unprecedented geopolitical conditions. While the U. S. operates as a unipolar power internationally, it simultaneously engages in bipolar competition with China and multipolar trade negotiations with other nations. “Donald Trump came in saying … he was going to ignore, to the extent he could, the other two branches. And to a large degree, the other two branches have allowed him to do so. That is what has made him so powerful and it is what continues to make him powerful,” Okun said. However, internal policy is not the only thing affecting international relations. In 2015, China launched “Made in China 2025,” a Beijing-backed industrial policy designed to transform China into a high-tech global manufacturing powerhouse within 10 years. China also has a policy called “dual circulation,” where it dominates both its own domestic market and export markets. Strategic initiatives such as these have fundamentally reshaped U. S. -China relations into a trade war rather than a truce. “We are not at a trade truce. The trade war between the US and China is still very much active,” Okun said. “We are at a strategic stalemate in this trade war because both sides have a lot of leverage over the other … we are likely to see a summer of action between the U. S. and China. ”Countries throughout Asia face difficult choices in balancing relationships with both superpowers while pursuing alternative trading arrangements through mechanisms like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Another contributing factor to tension between countries is the tariffs that the U. S. has and will continue to impose on other countries. According to Okun, the Trump administration’s reliance on tariffs as an economic weapon will persist regardless of legal frameworks. “Tariffs are not going anywhere. They are here to stay, and what is he going to do? [Trump] will find a way to make them stay,” Okun stated. Critical challenges ahead include managing energy security, climate crisis impacts, the continued fracturing of globalism and addressing AI disruption and its K-shaped economic effects where some socioeconomic groups and industries thrive while others fall behind. Businesses and governments must prepare for foreseeable risks rather than focusing on unlikely events. “If you spend your time focusing on something that happens once in a century, you’re going to be wasting your time 99% of the time,” said Okun. “A gray rhino is a problem that is big and ugly and staring you in the face … take the precaution and you can be ready for the gray rhino. ”Access thefull transcript here. This fellowship is part of an ongoing program of journalism training and awards for trade coverage sponsored by theHinrich Foundation. The National Press Foundation is solely responsible for the content. Resources and transcriptsare available to journalists worldwide. Tags:businesstariffstrade war