The pipeline, the politics, the fallout: who's up, who's down after Alberta to B. C. project announcement - Angus Reid Institute
July 23, 2026 –The announcement of a proposed new oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast has opened a new front in Canadian energy politics, promising expanded access to overseas markets. . .
July 23, 2026 –The announcement of a proposed new oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast has opened a new front in Canadian energy politics, promising expanded access to overseas markets while renewing longstanding debates over economic benefits, environmental risk and provincial interests. New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the pipeline announcement producing sharply different political outcomes for the premiers involved. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has benefited, with her approval rising seven points to 46 per cent since June, while B. C. Premier David Eby has seen his approval slide to just 27 per cent, as uncertainty about his performance surges. Eby appears to be receiving little credit from pipeline supporters, two-thirds of whom disapprove of his performance, while past BC NDP voters have grown considerably less positive about him — approval among that group has fallen from 78 per cent to 53 per cent in a single month. Smith, meanwhile, has seen gains among both past UCP (+7) and NDP (+6) voters, though a majority of Albertans continue to disapprove of her performance overall, and an October referendum on separatism looms over her recovery. OverviewEby: A Surge of UncertaintyEby: Partisan DivideSmith: Approval ReboundsSmith: Partisan DivideMethodology›OverviewPipeline announcement produces sharply different outcomes for B. C. and Alberta's premiersIn early July, Prime Minister Mark Carney joined Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to advance a proposed million-barrel-per-day pipeline to the B. C. coast. Premier David Eby signed a wide-ranging economic agreement with the federal government that maintains the tanker ban on B. C. 's north coast but leaves open the possibility of a new Alberta oil pipeline reaching the southern coast. Eby has stressed that B. C. has not endorsed the proposal, while acknowledging the province cannot constitutionally block it. The two leaders have moved in opposite directions since the announcement: Smith's approval has rebounded to 46 per cent, while Eby's has slipped to 27 per cent, with a sharp rise in the share of British Columbians unable to offer an assessment. Angus Reid Institute, online surveys, July 10-14, 2026 (Alberta, n=619) and July 17-19, 2026 (B. C. , n=607). B. C. 's David EbyA surge of uncertainty, and little political gain from the pipeline debateEby's approval is driven as much by uncertainty as by intensifying opposition. Fewer than three-in-10 British Columbians (27%) now approve of the premier's performance, down four points since June and 13 points since December. A majority (54%) disapprove, though this is a seven-point decline from last month's high. Meanwhile, the share unable to offer an assessment has more than doubled, from eight to 19 per cent. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 17-19, 2026, n=607 British Columbia adults. Those who support the pipeline project have little affinity for Eby, suggesting they give him little credit for the project coming to fruition — two-thirds of supporters (66%) disapprove of his performance. Pipeline opponents are far more divided, splitting nearly evenly between approval (41%) and disapproval (37%). Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 17-19, 2026, n=607 British Columbia adults. B. C. 's David EbyBC NDP approval falls precipitously, BC Conservative opposition remains highThe combination of falling approval and sharply rising uncertainty may indicate that some past supporters are reconsidering Eby's performance as he attempts to balance economic development, environmental protection and B. C. 's interests in negotiations with Ottawa and Alberta. The share of past BC NDP voters viewing Eby positively has fallen 25 points in one month, while uncertainty among that group has increased five-fold. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 17-19, 2026, n=607 British Columbia adults. Alberta's Danielle SmithPipeline approval boosts Smith's appeal after a sub-40 per cent JuneThe pipeline announcement has had a much more positive impact for the premier in the project's origin province. After residents offered Smith a sub-40 per cent approval rating for the first time in June, amid concerns about a forthcoming referendum on separatism, the pipeline announcement appears to have washed the slate clean. Smith's approval has recovered to 46 per cent, the level she has maintained for most of her term. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 10-14, 2026, n=619 Alberta adults. Alberta's Danielle SmithA bi-partisan bump, but many still disapprovePerhaps most notable in this approval boost is the proportion that comes from each group of partisans in the province. Smith's positives jumped seven points among UCP voters and six points among New Democrats, though the overall level of approval remains markedly different between those groups. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 10-14, 2026, n=619 Alberta adults. Many continue to disapprove of Smith's performance, including two-in-five who are pipeline supporters (38%). This suggests that waters are now smoother compared to June, but hardly still — and the looming October referendum on separatism threatens to complicate the situation for Smith. Angus Reid Institute, online survey, July 10-14, 2026, n=619 Alberta adults. About this surveyMethodology and downloadsThe Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from July 10-14, 2026, among a randomized sample of 619 Albertan adults. A second survey was conducted from July 17-19, 2026, among 607 British Columbia adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a large-scale online panel developed to include Canadian residents in each of the 343 federal ridings in Canada and representative of the Canadian population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status and education. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/– 4 percentage points in each province, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.