Trump wanted Europe to spend more on defense. He may not like how it’s doing that.
Jul. 16, 2026, 2:03 PM EDTPresident Donald Trump spent years telling Europe it couldn’t keep relying on the United States to defend it. Europe appears to have gotten the message. Germany isdoublingits defense. . .
Jul. 16, 2026, 2:03 PM EDTPresident Donald Trump spent years telling Europe it couldn’t keep relying on the United States to defend it. Europe appears to have gotten the message. Germany isdoublingits defense budget over the next four years. NATO members have agreed to work towardspending 5% of gross domestic producton defense. And European governments are cooperating more closely on everything from missile defense to joint weapons procurement. But Europe isn’tspending moreto please Trump. It’s spending because it’s increasingly convinced that the U. S. may no longer be a dependable ally — and that may backfire on the U. S. for decades to come. The euros are flowing — just not to American defense contractors. The euros are flowing — just not to American defense contractors as much as they once did. As Europe builds its own defense industrial base, Trump’s push for it to shoulder more of its own defense may be undermining two other priorities: expanding American manufacturing and maintaining America’s military and international influence. In many ways, his policies are helping unravel the post-World War II bargain under which the U. S. guaranteed Europe’s security while European allies bought American weapons, hosted U. S. troops and anchored an international alliance led by Washington. The shift in spending is dramatic. Germany’s procurement plan lists 154 major purchases through 2026. Only 8% are going to U. S. suppliers, a dramatic reversal for one of Washington’s biggest defense customers. The European Union has said it wants 55% of all military purchases to come from European factories by 2030, under a defense plan worth roughly $915 billion. TheU. S. share of European arms importshas already fallen to 58% over the last five years, from 64% previously, with contractors in South Korea, France and Israel picking up the difference. European officials frame the shift as necessity, not retaliation. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has argued that European weapons should come without restrictions on their use, saying militaries need“free hands. ”The scale of the buildup is remarkable for post-Cold War Europe. Germany’s parliament approved a 2026 defense budget of more thanmore than $120 billion, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has endorsed plans to push defense and security spendingabove $230 billionannually by 2030, roughly one-third of the federal budget. Germany increased military spending by 24% last year to$114 billion, the largest increase among European NATO members and the first time since reunification that it exceeded 2% of GDP. To make that possible, Merz exemptedmilitary spendingfrom Germany’s constitutional debt brake, overturning decades of fiscal restraint. Germany is also leading theEuropean Sky Shield Initiative, a continent-wide missile defense system, while exploring closer nuclear deterrence cooperation with France and Britain. Trump hastaken creditfor the surge. After NATO allies agreed at last year’s summit at The Hague to work toward the 5% target, he called it a historic achievement, saying the U. S. had long been “carrying much more than our fair share. ”He wasn’t wrong about the scale. European NATO defense spendinggrew fasterin 2025 than at any point since 1953, according to SIPRI. But SIPRI credits more than Trump’s pressure. Researchers point to “the ongoing pursuit of European self-reliance. ” Trump’s repeatedattacks on allies, combined with a Pentagon strategy that expects Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense, have convinced many governments that they can no longer count on the U. S. the way they once did. At this month’s follow-up summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump reinforced that message, calling most European nations“decaying. ”Still, there are limits. Europe will have nohomegrown alternative to the F-35until at least the late 2030s, and a dozen European countries had ordered or selected 466 of the American-made fighters by the end of last year. Even Merz acknowledges that Europe will“remain dependent on the United States of America for a long time to come. ”Still, the trajectory is clear. Trump spent a decade demanding that Europe pay more for its own defense. It is doing exactly that — while increasingly building the factories, technologies and supply chains to sustain that defense on its own. Historians may ultimately judge this as one of Trump’s most consequential foreign policy achievements, or one of his greatest mistakes. If the trend continues, historians may ultimately judge this as one of Trump’s most consequential foreign policy achievements, or one of his greatest mistakes. Presidents have long argued about the appropriate troop levels and defense budgets to protect Europe. Trump may be changing something much more fundamental: whether Europe sees the United States as indispensable. For 80 years, American military power underpinned not just Europe’s security but also America’s global influence. The U. S. didn’t simply defend Europe. It helped shape European defense strategy, sold European militaries much of their equipment and forged alliances that amplified American power far beyond its borders. That bargain was struck when Europe lay devastated by World War II and faced a growing Soviet threat. It would be difficult to re-create today. A more self-reliant Europe may prove stronger in the long run. But it would also mean an America that is less central to European security and potentially less influential in world affairs. This is a preview ofMS NOW’s Project 47 Newsletter. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, get expert analysis on the administration’s latest actions and how others are pushing back sent straight to your inbox every Tuesday. Sign up now. Lily Becker is a producer on “The Weeknight” for MS NOW.