A Tale of Two Africas in Maps, And How It Affects the United States
Through a series of maps, the author explores Africa’s contrasting realities: deepening insecurity and underdevelopment alongside rapid economic growth and demographic expansion. The analysis explains why Africa’s risks and opportunities will increasingly shape U. S. national security, economic competitiveness, and global influence.
As anAfricawatcher, I have long told the story of two continents, juxtaposing the region’s plight with its opportunities, often arguing that the West should prepare for the continent's strategicrisks and opportunities. This is a decades-old mantra from across the Africa-watcher community. Alas, repeating these arguments over decades suggests we must work to deliver our message in a more compelling way. So, this is my attempt to tell the story of African issues more visually, with the hope that experts in geopolitics will gain a greater appreciation for the stories from the continent that carry compelling US implications. The Effectiveness of MapsFor nearly three decades, I have grappled with the most compelling way to hook a reader, whether at the CIA, theDepartment of Defense, the State Department, in the university classroom, or working with industry partners. One consistent reality is that a good graphic is optimal for making a story stick. And in my experience, the map is the king of graphics. Indeed, in the countless briefings I delivered as an intelligence officer, I brought one or more maps along every time. Similarly, I have used at least one map in every class meeting with my students. Maps orient the reader geographically, grant easy visual context, and ground a story in scale. Orientation:A reader can best relate to a story when they can see where it is taking placeContext:A map can provide a reader with helpful, visual facts, whether through data or comparisonScale:The size and value of a specific trait are easily observable on a mapThe Risk Side: Development Gaps and Conflict Reinforce Each OtherCRITICALCONTEXTHealthPoor healthcare infrastructure exacerbates communicable diseaseoutbreaks, like Ebolain Congo in 2026 and West Africa in 2014, challenging global aid capacity. SecurityLax development creates an environment ripe forextremism, creating a cycle where insecurity exacerbates underdevelopment that in turn fosters insecurity. GeopoliticsConflicts attractoutside actors,creating a hotbed of geopolitical competition devoid of local interests and reducing African agency. Why It Matters to WashingtonAfrica is the last entry in Washington’sNational Security Strategy, reflecting a plan to allocate fewer resources to the continent, but Africa's crises often force unforeseen commitments. TheEbola outbreakin Congo underscores that weak health systems can turn outbreaks into global threats, compelling a US response. Insecurity due to extremist violence has prompted new and expandedUS military actionin Nigeria and Somalia, respectively. The continent leads the world interrorist-related casualties, with more than half of global fatalities occurring in the Sahel, posing an enduring threat to greater African stability and attracting renewed US focus. This deepening malaise and Sudan’s civil war have become a magnet for regional andglobal competition, including increased intervention fromRussiaandChinaand adversarial action between US alliesSaudi Arabiaand the UAE. The Opportunity Side: Economic Growth and Demographics Are StandoutStrengthsCRITICAL CONTEXTGrowth PotentialLess developed countries have more room for economic growth. Africa hasoutperformed global growthby approximately 0. 5 to 1. 5 percentage points since 2000. ImportsAs economies and populations grow, so do imports. Africa is on track tooutpacethe rest of the world in merchandise import growth during 2026. WorkforceAfricans are the world’s future workforce. TheOECD estimatesthat the continent’s working-age population (15-64 years old) will rise from about 850 million today to more than 1. 5 billion in 2050, accounting for 85% of the global workforce increase. Why It Matters to WashingtonAfrica’s GDP growth represents the high upside potential of the continent’s many comparatively less developed countries. Because African economies are not saturated, they have greater room to grow, making them attractive for investment gains. This coincides with the world's youngest population, which presents a range of reasons for outside nations to work with Africa, including circular migration deals for labor to sustain growth and to find markets for exports—60 countries are set to shrinkin population this year alone, including economic juggernauts China, Germany, Japan, Italy, Russia, Spain, and South Korea. - More pointedly for US implications, the country has beenbelow the replacement fertility rateof 2. 1 children per woman for nearly two decades (1. 6 in 2024). Mexico, the top provider of immigrant workers to the US, has been below replacement fertility for about a decade (1. 9 in 2024), suggesting Africa is positioned to serve as a sought-after source of workers. - For example, Washington could leverageKenya’s planto broker agreements for 1 million of its citizens to work abroad annually. Nigeria is on track to surpass the US as the world’s third-largest country by population within thenext three decadesand will almost certainly have to find foreign destinations for its workforce. -Canada stands outas having conspicuously higher population growth inNorth America, the result of purposeful legal migration, which is 3 times that of the US as a percentage of the overall population. All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U. S. Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U. S. Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author's views. The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives onnational securityissues submitted by deeply experiencednational securityprofessionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief. Have a perspective to share based on your experience in thenational securityfield? Send it toEditor@thecipherbrief. comfor publication consideration. Read more expert-drivennational securityinsights, perspective and analysis inThe Cipher Brief