Airfreight Rates to Rise 5–15% in 2026 Amid Middle East Disruptions: Xeneta
Airfreight rates are now projected to increase 5–15% in 2026 as Middle East conflict tightens capacity. Xeneta also sees stronger demand, driven by AI shipments, while e-commerce volumes decline.
Airfreight rates are now expected to increase by 5% to 15% in 2026, reversing earlier projections of a decline, as disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict continue to reshape market dynamics, according toXeneta’s Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update. The revised outlook marks a sharp departure from the company’s December forecast, which had anticipated a 5% to 10% drop in long-term shipper rates. Xeneta now attributes the upward revision primarily to the supply chain shock triggered by the escalation of conflict in the region in late February. Demand projections have also been adjusted upward, with full-year growth now expected at the higher end of the previously estimated 2% to 3% range. In contrast, capacity growth is likely to remain constrained, tracking toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% band, down from the earlier 3% to 4% estimate. The February escalation removed around 12% of global air cargo capacity almost overnight, limiting supply growth to just 1% in the first half of the year. During the same period, demand rose 4%, outpacing earlier expectations and tightening the supply-demand balance. As a result, global air cargo rates, across both spot and contract markets, climbed 17% year-on-year in H1 2026. Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, noted that while spot rates surged nearly 40% year-on-year in May, they have since stabilised rather than declined. He highlighted the resilience of demand, which has continued to outperform expectations despite ongoing geopolitical and economic pressures. Looking ahead, Xeneta expects demand growth to moderate in the second half of the year, while capacity gradually recovers. This could ease market pressures and shift some leverage back toward shippers, though uncertainties remain. Strong demand for AI-related shipments is also supporting the market, particularly in semiconductors and hardware. Global semiconductor sales surged 106% year-on-year in April 2026, the fastest growth recorded since 1986. Although AI-linked cargo still accounts for less than 10% of total volumes, it is heavily concentrated on the Transpacific, currently the strongest-performing trade lane. In contrast, e-commerce demand is losing momentum. China’s low-value and e-commerce exports declined 7% year-on-year in May, marking the sixth consecutive monthly drop. Regulatory changes are also weighing on volumes, with the European Union scrapping its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports from July, introducing a €3 duty per item and an additional €2 handling fee expected later in the year. Van de Wouw cautioned that the air cargo market remains vulnerable to further geopolitical shocks. He noted that the sudden disruption following the February escalation underscores the unpredictability of the current environment, and emphasised the importance of real-time data and intelligence in helping shippers navigate future disruptions.