Consequences of the Iran Ceasefire Deal - Middle East Policy Council
White House leaders are lashing out at Israel and former President Barack Obama as the Trump administration curbs sanctions on Iran in the hopes of negotiating a nuclear deal over the next two months that will justify the 111-day war. As we await concrete indications of what is entailed in the ceasefire memo, Middle East
Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience. White House leaders arelashing out at Israelandformer President Barack Obamaas the Trump administration curbs sanctions on Iran in the hopes of negotiating a nuclear deal over the next two months that will justify the 111-day war. As we await concrete indications of what is entailed in the ceasefire memo,Middle East Policyannounces a special double summer issuefeaturing original articles on the Iran War and its aftermath, Israel’s relationships with Washington and New Delhi, and politics in the occupied territories. The table of contents of this special double issue is below. You can still read ourspecial issue on the Iran Warand ourSpring 2026 compilation. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit;register to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on thesocial media platforms X,LinkedIn, andInstagram. The newMiddle East Policyanalyzes the consequences of Iran’s forcing President Donald Trump into a ceasefire agreement with no guarantee that any of his original goals will be met. As traffic moves through the Strait of Hormuz—a concession from Iran that would not have been necessary if the United States had not launched the war—Gawdat Bahgat contends that there will be no likely return to the status quo antebellum. He anticipates that fees will be imposed on the vital shipping route, and in the longer term we will see moves to reduce reliance on both the strait and fossil fuels. The war and the ceasefire deal are also exposing fault lines in Trump’s relationship with Israel and demonstrating weaknesses in his transactional diplomacy. Buğra Sari’s structural analysis of the post-October 7 conflictsbetween Iran and Israel shows that, to obviate the potential for forever wars, Washington must exert pressure on Israel so the incentives point toward de-escalation. AndRobert Springborg and Guilain Denoeux contendthat the US-Iran standoff is not amenable to Trump’s style, as in the lead-up to the war, the president never intended to make the concessions necessary for a nuclear deal. The next 60 days will indicate whether he can change his approach. The new summer issue also takes a deep dive intohow the Islamic Revolution of 1979 reconfigured security arrangementsacross the region, as well ashow Iran broadened its forward defenses into sub-Saharan Africa. The Iran War’s reverberations are not limited to the three combatants, as the analyses inMiddle East Policydemonstrate. The key energy producers of the Gulf have an opportunity toexpand their cooperation with the Asia Pacificacross an array of trade sectors, continuing a trend toward multipolarity. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,argues Mohammed Ayoob, must now contend with an emboldened Iran, a fraying relationship with the United Arab Emirates, and a relatively weaker United States. However, it will be difficult to loosen the ties with Washington,Mazaher Koruzhde and Eric Lob show. Their comparison of the kingdom’s inaction during the Gaza war with its 1973 oil embargo indicates that Riyadh’s subsequent integration into the US-led global economic order has prevented it from acting against American interests. The first half of the new summer issue concludes with a look at shifts in political dynamics laid bare during Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks. Yücel Bulut traces India’s deepening ties with Israeldespite the carnage in Gaza, largely driven by ideological commonalities between the right wings of the two states. Indeed, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has alienated much of world opinion, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, increasingly sought to shield Israel from opprobrium at the United Nations and aimed to expand the economic and political partnership. And two studies from Palestine showdeepening political engagement among young people, who have had to overcome repression from Israel and the Palestinian Authority as they seek to overcome hopelessness andmake their voices heard on the Gaza war. Middle East Policy, Summer 2026Special Double Issue!AMERICA’S WAR ON IRANSignals, Red Lines, and Collision:The Israel-Iran Spiral and US InterventionBuğra Sari—open access!Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy:Breakthrough or Breakdown?Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!Between Ideology and Strategy:The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern SecurityAlabbas F. Alsudani—open access!Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan AfricaAriel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULFCrisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus:Navigating Shifts in Demand and GeopoliticsUmud Shokri—open access!Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle:Dissecting the MBS RegimeMohammed Ayoob—free to read!POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINENew Political Actors in Palestine:The Digital Efficacy of Gen ZAbdalraheem S. H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S. H. ShobakiBetween Fatigue and Fear:West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza WarMert Öztürk / Oqab JabaliExplaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War:Why No Oil Embargo?Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner:India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025Yücel Bulut—open access!REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIAA Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad SyriaZeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!Federalism in Post-Assad Syria:Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist SocietyDilan OkcuogluREGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCECryptocurrency Regulation in MENA:From Prohibition to Conditional LegalizationBassant Hassib | Fatimah AyadFallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020Kevin RosierPlastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries:Problems and Policy SolutionsRichard Rutter et al. Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar:National Vision, Strategy, and ConstitutionLogan Cochrane et al. THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIASaudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific NationsGhulam AliChina’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi ArabiaSong Niu | Danyu WangChinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and EffectivenessMinglian Long, Yijia Luo, Yi ZhangBOOK REVIEWSLynch,America’s Middle EastReviewed by Yasir KuotiDenoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui,Making Aid WorkReviewed by Naomi SakrMomeni,The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005Reviewed by Mahmood MonshipouriBajoghli et al. ,How Sanctions WorkReviewed by Bahram P. KalviriDonelli,Power Competition in the Red SeaReviewed by Riccardo GascoBrownlee and Ghiabi,States Without PeopleReviewed by İlhan BiliciKaram,The Middle East in 1958Reviewed by Elifnur DüzsözUysal,Class, Capital, State, and Late DevelopmentReviewed by Yusuf MurtezaGreenberg,The Long War of IdeasReviewed by A. R. JoyceMiddle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.