Is the US Misreading Iranian Strategy? - Middle East Policy Council
As Iran buried long-time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and resumed attacks on Gulf shipping and US allies, Washington this week unleashed a barrage of at least 170 strikes to compel the regime to abandon the oil weapon and negotiate from a position of weakness. A new open-access article in Middle East Policy suggests that President
Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience. As Iran buried long-time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and resumed attacks on Gulf shipping and US allies, Washington this week unleashed a barrage of at least 170 strikes to compel the regime to abandon the oil weapon and negotiate from a position of weakness. A new open-access article inMiddle East Policysuggests that President Donald Trump has misread the Islamic Republic by assuming that it will back down in the face of superior military force. Instead, Iran’s strategy is co-constituted by the pragmatic imperatives of homeland defense and a revolutionary identity forged over nearly half a century. The new double issue ofMiddle East Policyfeatures incisive analyses of the Iran War:Gawdat Bahgat contends that there will be no likely return to the status quo antebellumin the Strait of Hormuz;Buğra Sari’s structural analysis of the Iran-Israel conflictshows that Washington must shift the incentives on both sides; andRobert Springborg and Guilain Denoeux contendthat the US-Iran standoff is not amenable to Trump’s transactional style. In addition,Ariel Limanya Limbu and Ronen A. Cohenexamine the extension of Iran’s forward defense into sub-Saharan Africa, andUmud Shokri shows how Gulf-Asia energy tiesare being reshaped by maritime insecurity, corridor disruption, and the shift toward multipolar energy governance. The table of contents of this special double issue is below. You can still read ourspecial issue on the Iran War, published in March. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit;register to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on thesocial media platforms X,LinkedIn, andInstagram. In his open-access article on the co-constitution of revolutionary identity and pragmatic security doctrine in Iran,Alabbas F. Alsudani contends that scholars have erredin arguing for one or the other as the central driving force of regime behavior. During the formative period of the early Islamic Republic, as factions across the ideological spectrum competed for power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arose as a protector of clerical principles. However, its mission soon expanded to homeland defense in the face of the Iraqi invasion of 1980. “Through this process, ideology and strategic learning became institutionalized within the state’s military structures,”Alsudani writes, “producing a hybrid strategic culture composed of mutually reinforcing revolutionary identity and pragmatic adaptation. ”Over the decades that followed, Iran faced periodic domestic unrest that threatened its legitimacy while increasingly relying on a doctrine of forward defense to deter external adversaries. These efforts continued to merge revolutionary identity and homeland security. For instance, Hezbollah became a key ally due to its shared ideological vision,Alsudani argues, “but its operational logic aligned with Iran’s forward defense. ”This week’s renewed fighting shows that the two aspects are inseparable. Hezbollah’s rejection of the new Lebanon ceasefire—which conditions Israeli withdrawal on the militant group’s disarmament—demonstrates that Iran’s forward-defense strategy remains intertwined with the revolutionary commitment to preserving the Axis of Resistance. This fusion also enabled the mobilization of paramilitaries in Iraq and the Houthi movement in Yemen. Analyses must take all of this together to understand Iranian behavior,Alsudani contends:The regional order that has emerged since 1979 is therefore neither purely sectarian nor purely strategic. It is marked by hybrid actors operating within partially fragmented states, by sovereignty that is negotiated rather than absolute, and by deterrence exercised through networks rather than conventional armies. This reconfiguration is the enduring impact of the Iranian revolution. Alsudani allows that when “Iran’s regional network is systematically degraded”—as it has been since 2024, leading to the direct wars against the regime over the last two years—“ideology and strategy contract toward the homeland as networked deterrence shifts to direct confrontation. ”However, he concludes: “While the co-constitution has been placed under extreme pressure by the US-Israeli war of 2026, it has persisted in modified form and is likely to continue as a fundamental logic. ”The renewed conflict in the Gulf thus illustrates both dimensions ofAlsudani’s argument. Iran’s threats against shipping and the Strait of Hormuz reflect the pragmatic requirements of homeland defense and regime survival under direct attack. At the same time, Tehran continues to view Hezbollah as integral to its revolutionary identity. Rather than replacing ideology with pragmatism, Iran’s actions show how the two remain co-constituted. Middle East Policy, Summer 2026Special Double Issue!AMERICA’S WAR ON IRANSignals, Red Lines, and Collision:The Israel-Iran Spiral and US InterventionBuğra Sari—open access!Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy:Breakthrough or Breakdown?Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!Between Ideology and Strategy:The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern SecurityAlabbas F. Alsudani—open access!Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan AfricaAriel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULFCrisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus:Navigating Shifts in Demand and GeopoliticsUmud Shokri—open access!Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle:Dissecting the MBS RegimeMohammed Ayoob—free to read!POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINENew Political Actors in Palestine:The Digital Efficacy of Gen ZAbdalraheem S. H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S. H. ShobakiBetween Fatigue and Fear:West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza WarMert Öztürk / Oqab JabaliExplaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War:Why No Oil Embargo?Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner:India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025Yücel Bulut—open access!REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIAA Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad SyriaZeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!Federalism in Post-Assad Syria:Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist SocietyDilan Okcuoglu—open access!REGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCECryptocurrency Regulation in MENA:From Prohibition to Conditional LegalizationBassant Hassib | Fatimah AyadFallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020Kevin RosierPlastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries:Problems and Policy SolutionsRichard Rutter et al. Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar:National Vision, Strategy, and ConstitutionLogan Cochrane et al. THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIASaudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific NationsGhulam AliChina’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi ArabiaSong Niu | Danyu WangChinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and EffectivenessMinglian Long, Yijia Luo, Yi ZhangBOOK REVIEWSLynch,America’s Middle EastReviewed by Yasir KuotiDenoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui,Making Aid WorkReviewed by Naomi SakrMomeni,The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005Reviewed by Mahmood MonshipouriBajoghli et al. ,How Sanctions WorkReviewed by Bahram P. KalviriDonelli,Power Competition in the Red SeaReviewed by Riccardo GascoBrownlee and Ghiabi,States Without PeopleReviewed by İlhan BiliciKaram,The Middle East in 1958Reviewed by Elifnur DüzsözUysal,Class, Capital, State, and Late DevelopmentReviewed by Yusuf MurtezaGreenberg,The Long War of IdeasReviewed by A. R. JoyceMiddle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.