The Future of the US-Saudi Nuclear Pact - Middle East Policy Council
President Donald Trump has thrown into doubt a landmark nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, demanding on social media that Riyadh normalize relations with Israel and forswear uranium enrichment on its soil in return for American assistance in developing a civilian atomic program. New articles in Middle East Policy explore the geopolitical consequences of such a
Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience. President Donald Trump has thrown into doubt a landmark nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia,demanding on social media that Riyadh normalize relations with Israeland forswear uranium enrichment on its soil in return for American assistance in developing a civilian atomic program. New articles inMiddle East Policyexplore the geopolitical consequences of such a deal, including the implications for Saudi-US relations, Israeli hegemony, and a potential regional arms race. Middle East Policyhas just published itsSummer 2026 double issue, featuring incisiveopen-access examinations of the Iran War, its causes, and its implications, includingwhat lies ahead in the Strait of Hormuz; howTrump’s transactionalism is backfiring; how theIslamic Revolution upended regional security; Iran’sforward defense in Africa; and the effects of the war onGulf cooperation with the Asia-Pacific. The table of contents of this special double issue is below. If you find this article useful, please forward it to others you believe will benefit. You canregister to receive our weekly updates here. And please follow us on thesocial media platforms XandLinkedIn. Many details of the originally announced nuclear pact between Washington and Riyadh are surprising, including the fact that it would not require Saudi-Israeli normalization. However,an article in the new summer issueexplains why the Trump administration may trust the kingdom to continue its tacit cooperation with Israel. Mazaher Koruzhde and Eric Lob examine why Saudi Arabia did not seriously try to end the Gaza war as it had 50 years earlier, when it used an oil embargo and production cuts to punish Western support for Israel in its conflict with Arab states. Koruzhde and Lob contendthat after the Saudi actions of 1973–74 shocked the American economy, a hegemonic coalition of governmental and private-sector elites in the United States and Saudi Arabia developed a business-security structure that prevented Riyadh from punishing the West over the Gaza war. Their analysis shows how the transnational investment bloc integrated the kingdom into the US-led global capitalist economy and substantially constrained Saudi leverage. “Solidarity with the Palestinians, which had once allowed Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states to connect with their societies through a shared moral commitment, was replaced with geoeconomic positioning as investment hubs for US-aligned transnational capital,” they argue. Given this long-term development, Washington may not need a formal Saudi-Israeli accord to keep Riyadh aligned with its priorities. However, Trump’s Thursday morning social-media post suggests he may demand that Saudi Arabia sign the Abraham Accords in return for the agreement. An article inMiddle East Policyby Niv Farago, examining the history of American nuclear relations in the region as well as Riyadh’s relations with China and Russia, argues in favor of a deal that includes “US-run enrichment and reprocessing facilities on Saudi soil as part of the kingdom’s plans to upgrade its capacity for electric-power generation. ” If Washington were to bend to the wishes of Israeli hawks and try to prevent Riyadh from building a civilian program,Farago contends, “Israel and the United States risk losing influence over the trajectory of the Saudi nuclear program to Russia and China. ”Implicit throughout Farago’s analysisis the assumption that a US-Saudi deal would include Riyadh’s signing the Abraham Accords. However, he does raise questions about whether Israel actually wants to bear the responsibility of formal relations. “While the Israelis are eager to reap the political and economic benefits of normalization with a key Arab and Muslim country, they have reservations about its costs,” he writes. “These include the kingdom’s demands that Israel end its operations in Gaza, advance toward Palestinian statehood, and accept an independent Saudi nuclear fuel cycle. ” Therefore, Trump’s demand for normalization may not have a straightforward solution, as Israeli critics could demand further concessions in return. Farago’s concerns about Chinese and Russian influence in Saudi Arabia find support inan article by Xiaoyu Wang, Salman K. Al-Dhafeeire, and Degang Sun, who trace the kingdom’s growing strategic autonomy. They show that Riyadh’s autonomy has led to a deeper relationship with China and compelled the United States to restore arms sales, deepen technological cooperation, and maintain troops in the kingdom. An article by Ghulam Ali in the summer issuefurther explores the increasing Saudi engagement with the Asia Pacific. Given these developments, the reported 30-year nuclear deal would help Washington pull Riyadh back toward its orbit, expand opportunities for American companies, and require the United States to make a long-term commitment to Saudi Arabia. The American interest in coming to terms with Riyadh has also been driven by the Iran War. As Gawdat Bahgat demonstrates in his article in the summer issue, although Gulf states can develop other means to export energy resources to the world, there are few options to solve the slowdown in the Strait of Hormuz even in the medium term. The damage from the war as analyzed by Bahgat could be forcing Washington to placate Saudi Arabia by speeding up what should be a complicated agreement on the nuclear program. While these articles take seriously the Saudi interest in developing a peaceful nuclear program,Robert Mason reminds us of the security concernsstemming from proliferation. What if the Iran War pushes Saudi Arabia toward weaponization in the face of a potentially nuclear-armed neighbor?Mason examines the potentialfor the Middle East to become a zone that excludes not just nuclear arms but all weapons of mass destruction. He advocates a gradual process that includes four key components: an American security guarantee for Israel in return for its eventual transition away from nuclear arms; a new US-led nuclear deal with Iran as a platform for further diplomacy; Washington’s upholding the nonproliferation “gold standard” as a pillar of regional policy; and the removal of US nuclear weapons from Turkey. But he acknowledgesthat the process will “continue to be dominated by uncertainty, competition, and the potential for rapid escalation and spillover from conflict. ”Middle East Policy, Summer 2026Special Double Issue!AMERICA’S WAR ON IRANSignals, Red Lines, and Collision:The Israel-Iran Spiral and US InterventionBuğra Sari—open access!Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy:Breakthrough or Breakdown?Guilain Denoeux | Robert Springborg—open access!Between Ideology and Strategy:The Iranian Revolution and the Reconfiguration of Middle Eastern SecurityAlabbas F. Alsudani—open access!Iran’s Forward Defense in Sub-Saharan AfricaAriel Limanya Limbu | Ronen A. Cohen—open access!CONSEQUENCES IN THE GULFCrisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?Gawdat Bahgat—free to read!GCC-Asia Pacific Energy Nexus:Navigating Shifts in Demand and GeopoliticsUmud Shokri—open access!Outwardly Strong, Internally Brittle:Dissecting the MBS RegimeMohammed Ayoob—free to read!POLITICAL CONVULSIONS OVER PALESTINENew Political Actors in Palestine:The Digital Efficacy of Gen ZAbdalraheem S. H. Shobaki | Mahmoud S. H. ShobakiBetween Fatigue and Fear:West Bank Student Solidarity During the Gaza WarMert Öztürk / Oqab JabaliExplaining Saudi Arabia’s Inaction During the Gaza War:Why No Oil Embargo?Mazaher Koruzhde | Eric Lob—free to read!From Palestine Ally to Zionist Partner:India-Israel Relations, 2014–2025Yücel Bulut—open access!REBUILDING AND RECKONING IN SYRIAA Heuristic Equation of Transformation, Justice, and Violence in Post-Assad SyriaZeynep Banu Dalaman—free to read!Federalism in Post-Assad Syria:Toward Durable Peace in a Pluralist SocietyDilan Okcuoglu—open access!REGIONAL SOCIAL & ECONOMIC GOVERNANCECryptocurrency Regulation in MENA:From Prohibition to Conditional LegalizationBassant Hassib | Fatimah AyadFallen Cedar: Lebanon’s Debt Diplomacy, 2015–2020Kevin RosierPlastics Pollution in the Gulf Countries:Problems and Policy SolutionsRichard Rutter et al. Constructing Social Cohesion in Qatar:National Vision, Strategy, and ConstitutionLogan Cochrane et al. THE ATTRACTIVE POWER OF EAST ASIASaudi Arabia’s Deepening Engagement with Asia-Pacific NationsGhulam AliChina’s Hajj-Related Infrastructure Diplomacy with Saudi ArabiaSong Niu | Danyu WangChinese-Arab Scientific Cooperation and EffectivenessMinglian Long, Yijia Luo, Yi ZhangBOOK REVIEWSLynch,America’s Middle EastReviewed by Yasir KuotiDenoeux, Springborg, and Alaoui,Making Aid WorkReviewed by Naomi SakrMomeni,The Presidential Difference and Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Khatami from 1997 to 2005Reviewed by Mahmood MonshipouriBajoghli et al. ,How Sanctions WorkReviewed by Bahram P. KalviriDonelli,Power Competition in the Red SeaReviewed by Riccardo GascoBrownlee and Ghiabi,States Without PeopleReviewed by İlhan BiliciKaram,The Middle East in 1958Reviewed by Elifnur DüzsözUysal,Class, Capital, State, and Late DevelopmentReviewed by Yusuf MurtezaGreenberg,The Long War of IdeasReviewed by A. R. JoyceMiddle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.