Two Formula 1 races at risk as Middle East conflict threatens dramatic 2026 calendar twist
The Qatar Grand PrixandAbu Dhabi GPare at risk of being cancelled as conflict in the Middle East sparks once again with resumption of the United States’ bombing campaign against Iran putting the twoFormula. . .
The Qatar Grand PrixandAbu Dhabi GPare at risk of being cancelled as conflict in the Middle East sparks once again with resumption of the United States’ bombing campaign against Iran putting the twoFormula 1races at risk. President Donald Trump warned the Iranian government that he plans to strike power plants and bridges if the they refuse to return to the negotiating table as attempted peace talks continue in the region. This marks the second time in 2026 that the American leader has threatened to target civilian infrastructure, as conflict resumed on July 10 with a US blockade of ports in Iran and bombing lasting for hours. In response, Iran replied by attacking American targets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, with the United Arab Emirates declaring that two oil tankers had been struck, leaving an Indian national dead and eight others injured. The latest developments come after Trump claimed the United States was now the “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz, a stretch of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran containing the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. A total of 20% of the globe’s liquefied natural gas flows through the waterway to reach the Arabian Sea and from there, access to the world’s oceans. An estimated 25% of all seaborne oil trade passes through Hormuz. More on Oscar Piastri and the F1 driver marketCatch up with Total Motorsport’s latest coverage on Oscar Piastri’s McLaren future, what his exit could mean for Max Verstappen and F1, his 2027 options, and the growing Red Bull frustration around Verstappen’s McLaren talks. The conflict threatens the closing rounds of the2026 F1season, and could potentially cause the cancellation of Round 21 atQatar’sLusail International Circuitand Round 22 inAbu Dhabi’sYas Marina Circuit. So, what do we know as things stand?Why Formula 1 cancelled the Bahrain GP and the Saudi Arabian GPThe conflict and strikes across the region saw the cancellation of theBahrain GPand theSaudi Arabian GP, originally scheduled for April 10-12 and 17-19 respectively, shortening the calendar from 24 races to 22. The result was a loss of revenue and a spontaneous five-week gap in the calendar between theJapanese GPandMiami GP, with no other venues capable of stepping up in time on such short notice. With theFIAunable to guarantee the safety of drivers, teams, personnel and other staff employed to help host the sport at theBahrain International Circuitand theJeddah Corniche Circuit, the decision was made to suspend both events. Arvid Lindblad of Racing Bulls on track during 2026 F1 Testing at Bahrain International Circuit | Getty Images / Red Bull Content PoolThe cancellations cost a hit in excess of £100 million toFormula 1’s revenue, and although there was some hope that the races could potentially be restored later in the year, but this now appears unlikely. The lost revenue, generated through hosting fees, affects the prize money available to be offered byFormula 1to its 11 competitors – which could spell difficulties for teams on marginal budgets such asWilliamsandHaas. “While this was a difficult decision to take,”F1 CEOStefano Domenicalisaid, officially. “It is unfortunately the right one at this stage considering the current situation in the Middle East. “I want to take this opportunity to thank the FIA as well as our incredible promoters for their support and total understanding as they were looking forward to hosting us with their usual energy and passion. “We cannot wait to be back with them as soon as the circumstances allow us to do so. ”Will the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and Qatar GP be cancelled?With the emergence of recent conflict in the region after the ceasefire, theFIAandFormula 1now find themselves with a decision to make: Do they cancel theQatar GPand theAbu Dhabi GP, reducing the calendar even further?Whilst Portimao in Portugal and Istanbul Park in Turkey have been touted as potential replacement options for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, as things stand, a cancellation would see the campaign end with only 20 of the 24 scheduled races completed. This carries implications forLewis HamiltonandGeorge Russell’s title chances as they aim to chase downKimi Antonelliby reducing the points on offer, and likewise the potential forFerrarito catchMercedesin the constructors’ championship. It would be the first time since the 2020 F1 season that fewer than 22 races have been held, provided theFIAandFormula 1do not host replacement races – which remains a viable option in the coming weeks. According toMotorsport. com, the sport could run into issues with sponsors and promoters that are contracted to a minimum of 22 Grands Prix per campaign, although it’s unclear whether the unprecedented situation in the Middle East offers legal leeway. The deadline for making a decision is no later than theDutch GPat Zandvoort on September August 23. The Qatar and Abu Dhabi races are currently scheduled for November 29 and December 6 respectively. Why are Iran and the United States at war?There is a long-standing history of tension between Iran and the United States, which also involves Israel as a major American ally, dating back to the result of World War I and the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Prior to 1979, a pro-western government had been implemented and offered favourable terms to the USA at the peak of the Cold War, which was not looked fondly upon by the Iranians that viewed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as repressive. Historically Islamic, the Shah had installed a western social structure that rapidly promoted values such as western fashion, cinemas, theatres, cafés, nightclubs, music venues and an expansion of the role of women in society. However, 1979 saw the Shah’s power collapse in a revolution re-introducing an Islamic society, but one now hostile to the United States and its western allies. Those old enough will remember, 52 American diplomats being held hostage for 444 days. Carlos Sainz leaves the pits during qualifying for the F1 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix | Williams RacingRelations worsened after the USA backed Iraq during a conflict with Iran whilst continuing to support Israel in the Middle East, and eventually fears centred on a suspicion that Iran is attempting to construct a nuclear weapon. Israel claims this is a threat to its existence in the region, planning and encouraging the USA to attack Iean and, as a result, the current conflict was initiated by Trump on February 28 with the assassination of the Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded by bombing targets across the Middle East and within the Straight of Hormuz as the latter caused oil traffic to halt and allowed Iran to use the waterway as a pressure point, harming the economies of the USA and its oil-dependent allies in Europe. Trump has attempted to open the waterway ever since and even retrospectively applied his own blockade after Iran. The United States had lifted the blockade in June as part of ceasefire talks with Iran, but no agreement was reached. Both sides have accused the other of violating the pause to the conflict, since resuming violent attacks, which leaves the risk of twoFormula 1races being cancelled as conflict sparks in Middle East once again. Brandon SuttonBrandon is an alumni of an NCTJ and BJTC Liverpool John Moores University course, and has been with Total-Motorsport. com for over a year now. He enjoys covering all forms of motorsport but particularly focuses on Formula 1, and Brandon loves to debate various topics of the sport and other interests, especially if that topic doesn't have an open/shut answer such as the GOAT debate.